000 AXPZ20 KNHC 032133 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 03 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 09s84w to 09N93W to 10N101W to 07N106W and to 07N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N128W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 96W-100W and from 05N to 07N between 93W-96W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1030 mb high pressure center located west-northwest of the area near 38N133W extends a broad ridge southeastward to near 23N118W. This set-up is producing a weak pressure pattern across the regional waters. Afternoon ASCAT data showed gentle to moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur. Moderate to fresh northwest winds are west of Baja California Norte. Partial ASCAT data from this afternoon revealed gentle west to northwest winds along the coast of Mexico from Manzanillo to Puerto Angel. Northwest to north swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the Mexican waters to Puerto Angel. Gentle south to southwest winds are over the northern and central Gulf of California, while southeast to south light to gentle winds are over the southern section of the Gulf. Seas in the Gulf of California are in the 2-3 ft range, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section. For the forecast, the high pressure west-northwest of the area will move eastward, allowing moderate to fresh winds to continue through tonight. Gentle winds in the northern Gulf of California will become moderate southeast to south winds Sat through Sun, and fresh south to southwest winds Sun night. West to northwest winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will pulse to fresh tonight and again Wed night. Northwest swell will continue west of Baja California through the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte this weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte and building seas to above 12 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR ASCAT data from this afternoon again showed gentle winds across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, and gentle south to southwest winds to the south of the trough. A small pocket of mdoerate to fresh south winds is between 100W-103W south of the monsoon trough to near 05N. These winds are most likely being enhanced by active deep convection over this area related to the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in south to southwest across these waters, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft south of 03N due to the presence of higher southerly swell energy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over most of these waters. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh southwest winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will continue through Thu night, then diminish to gentle offshore Ecuador Fri and offshore Colombia on Sat. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. Long-period south to southwest swell will reach the waters off South America Wed, and the waters off Central America by early Thu, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between the 1029 mb high pressure located west-northwest of the area near 32N147W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to about 28N and west of 130W. Moderate tradewind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft. A weakening cold front extends from extreme southern California to 29N126W and to near 31N140w. It will dissipate by this afternoon as it continues to push southward over the north-central and northeast waters. Moderate N to NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are south of the front between 120W-128W. A rather consolidated area of numerous moderate to strong convection is evident near the monsoon trough roughly between 104W-109W, where a surface trough is analyzed along 107W this morning. Elsewhere seas to 8 ft in SW swell are present south of 01S between 99W- 133W. The aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist S of 27N and W of 130W through Thu as reinforcing high pressure behind the sinking cold front prevails. New long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W late tonight into Wed night before gradually subsiding Thu. The surface trough along 107W is forecast to linger through Thu, and perhaps become re-aligned in a northeast to southwest position. Looking ahead, new NNW swell will enter the NE part of the area late Sat through Sun. $$ Aguirre