000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030924 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0745 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74.5W to near 10.5N88W to 09N91.5W to 10.5N109W to 07N118W to 07.5N125W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N125W to 08N133W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 94W and 100W, and from 07.5N to 09.5N between 134W and 139W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 102W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1030 mb surface high is centered west-northwest of the area near 32N147W extends a broad ridge southeastward to near 16N114W. This alignment is producing a weak pressure pattern across the regional waters. Overnight ASCAT data showed moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds prevailing to the west of Baja California north of 22N. NNW swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the Mexican waters to Puerto Angel. Overnight ASCAT data also showed moderate S winds over the northern Gulf of California, where seas remain 2-3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are in the southern Gulf. ASCAT data also showed mainly gentle winds elsewhere along the coast of Mexico, from Manzanillo to Puerto Angel. The surface high pressure west-northwest of the area will move eastward, allowing northwesterly winds west of Baja California to remain moderate to fresh tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue, then diminish to gentle late Tue night. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. NNW swell will continue west of Baja California through Thu before new NW swell moves into the area. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte this weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte, and seas building in excess of 10 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Overnight ASCAT data showed variable gentle winds across the offshore waters north of the monsoon trough, and gentle westerly winds to the south of the trough. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell across these waters. Convection occurring offshore of Panama and Costa Rica earlier tonight had diminished significantly. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will increase to moderate to locally fresh from late Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed morning. Long- period S to SW swell will reach the waters off South America late Tue and reach Central America by Wed afternoon, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure located west-northwest of the area near 32N147W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 29N and west of 130W. Moderate tradewind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft. A weakening cold front extends from southern California to near 30N131W, and will dissipate by this afternoon as it moves southward into the regional waters. Moderate N to NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are found south of the front between 120W and 125W. Active convection continues near the monsoon trough overnight between 102W and 110W, where a surface trough is analyzed along 111W. Elsewhere seas to 8 ft in SW swell are noted south of 01S between 100W and 130W. The aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist S of 27N and W of 130W through Thu as reinforcing high pressure behind the sinking cold front prevails. New long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by Tue and persist through Wed night before gradually subsiding Thu. Looking ahead, new NNW swell will enter the NE part of the area late Sat through Sun. $$ Stripling