000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to near 10.5N88W to 08.5N94W to 10N105W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 87W, and from 07N to 10N W of 122W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 110N between 101W and 110W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1029 mb surface high is centered west-northwest of the area near 33N148W extends a broad ridge southeastward into the Mexican offshore waters, and is producing a weak pressure pattern across the regional waters. Afternoon ASCAT data showed moderate NW to NNW winds prevailing to the west of Baja California. NNW swell is producing seas of 6-8 ft across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the Mexican waters to Puerto Angel. Afternoon ASCAT data also showed moderate to locally fresh S winds over the northern Gulf of California, where seas remain 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are in the southern Gulf. ASCAT data also showed mainly gentle winds elsewhere offshore of Mexico, from Jalisco to the Guatemala border, where seas are 4-5 ft. The surface high pressure west-northwest of the area will move eastward, allowing northwesterly winds west of Baja California to increase slightly to moderate to fresh tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue, then diminish to gentle late Tue night. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. NW swell will continue west of Baja California through most of the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach Baja California Norte this weekend, bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Convergent surface winds along the monsoon trough E of 115W continue to trigger scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore of Panama, along the southern Costa Rica coast and extending well offshore and across portions of northern Colombia. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 5 ft across these offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will increase to moderate to locally fresh from late Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed morning. Long- period S to SW swell will reach the waters off South America Tue night and Central America by Wed evening, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure located west-northwest of the area near 33N148W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining moderate to fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 29N and west of 125W. Moderate trade- wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft. Moderate N to NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are found east of 125W. Seas to 8 ft in SW swell are occurring south of 01S between 100W and 128W. The aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist through this evening before diminishing to moderate to locally fresh Tue morning. Moderate to locally fresh N winds north of 28N and east of 127W will return to fresh tonight and Tue evening. Long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by Tue and persist through Wed night before gradually subsiding Thu. Looking ahead, renewed NW swell may enter the northern part of the area this weekend. $$ Stripling