000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022033 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1940 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from central Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N120W. The ITCZ continues from 09N120W to 08N131W to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 89W and from 06.5N to 15N between 100W and 115W. Isolated moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1030 mb high pressure centered well west-northwest of the area near 32N147W is leading to a weak pressure pattern. Recent ASCAT data shows moderate NW to NNW winds prevailing to the west of Baja California. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail off Baja California Norte, with 5-7 ft seas off Baja California Sur. ASCAT shows moderate to locally fresh S winds over the northern Gulf of California, where seas are likely 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are in the southern Gulf. ASCAT shows mainly gentle winds elsewhere offshore of Mexico, from Jalisco to the Guatemala border, where seas are 4-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure well west-northwest of the area will move eastward, allowing northwesterly winds west of Baja California to increase slightly to moderate to fresh tonight through Tue night. Moderate to fresh southerly winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Tue, then diminish to gentle late Tue night. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. NW swell will continue west of Baja California through most of the forecast period. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach Baja California Norte this weekend, possibly bringing fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Enhanced by the monsoon trough, convergent surface winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms off of Panama, southern Costa Rica and northern Colombia. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will increase to moderate to locally fresh from late Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the overnight and early morning hours through Wed morning. Long-period S to SW swell will reach the waters off South America Tue night and Central America by Wed evening, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 32N147W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 27N and west of 130W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 8 to 10 ft, confirmed by a 02/1500 UTC satellite altimeter pass. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 28N and west of 128W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and 8 to 9 ft seas are found north of 28N and east of 127W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the area, although seas to 8 ft in S to SW swell are occurring south of 02S between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist through this evening before diminishing to moderate to locally fresh Tue morning. Moderate to locally fresh N winds north of 28N and east of 127W will pulse back to fresh tonight and Tue evening. Long-period NW swell will enter the area from the northwest late Wed, then spread southeastward across much of the area through Fri. Long-period S to SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by Tue and persist through Wed night before gradually subsiding Thu. Looking ahead, renewed NW swell may enter the northern part of the area this weekend. $$ Hagen