064 AXPZ20 KNHC 020949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from central Costa Rica to 12N95W. An ITCZ continues from 12N95W to 08N118W...and from 09N124W to 05N140W with a surface trough in between near 09N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between the Panama- Colombia coast and 92W, and from 05N to 10N between 124W and 136W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 103W and 121W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1030 mb high pressure centered well west-northwest of the area near 32N145W continues to promote moderate to fresh NW winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte, and gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft west of Baja California Sur. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are likely in the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, from Jalisco to the Guatemala border; except moderate to fresh winds just south of Cabo San Lucas. Seas in this area are in the 4 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California through Tue, then become gentle on Tue night. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. A possible cold front near the U.S. west coast might cause fresh to strong winds west of Baja California Norte during the weekend. Moderate NW swell will persist west of Baja California Norte through Thu, then build to high toward the weekend. Light NW swell will continue west of Baja California Sur through Thu before increasing to moderate afterward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Enhanced by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, convergent surface winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and adjacent waters. Light to gentle with locally moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across all the offshore waters. For the forecast, periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist offshore from Nicaragua to Colombia through Tue. Gentle S to SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will become moderate to locally fresh from late Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during the early morning hours through Wed morning. Long-period S to SW swell will reach the waters off South America Tue night and Central American by Wed evening, then persist through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 32N145W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 27N and west of 130W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 28N and west of 133W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. Fresh NNW to N winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found north of 27N and between 121W and 133W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist through this evening before diminishing to mostly moderate Tue morning. Fresh NNW to N winds north of 27N between 121W and 133W will subside to moderate by noon today but should pulse back to fresh tonight and Tue evening. Starting late Tue night, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area from the northwest which should rise to high by Thu morning. Moderate, long-period S to SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week. $$ Chan