000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020459 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica to 10N100W. An ITCZ continues from 10N100W to 09N113W...and from 08N119W to 04N140W with a surface trough in between near 10N117W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 81W and 92W, and from 05N to 09N between 127W and 132W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 100W and 119W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1029 mb high pressure centered well west-northwest of the area near 32N147W continues to promote moderate to fresh NW winds along with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte, while gentle to moderate NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate winds with seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, from Jalisco to the Guatemala border; except fresh winds just south of Cabo San Lucas. Seas in this area are in the 4 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to moderate by early Mon morning. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. Moderate NW swell will persist west of Baja California Norte through Thu, then build to high toward the weekend. Light NW swell will continue west of Baja California Sur through Thu before increasing to moderate afterward. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Enhanced by a mid-level trough in the vicinity, convergent surface winds are triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the Honduras-Nicaragua border, and adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of eastern Panama, Colombia, Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds along with 4 to 5 ft seas exist for the rest of the offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle S to SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will become moderate to locally fresh late Tue afternoon through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during early morning hours through Wed morning. Periodic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist offshore from Costa Rica to Colombia through Tue. Long period S to SW swell will reach the waters off South America Tue night and the Central American waters by Wed evening, then persist through the latter part of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 32N147W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 27N and west of 126W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 28N and west of 133W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. Fresh NNW to N winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are found north of 27N and between 121W and 133W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere north of the ITCZ, while gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh NE trades are expected to persist through this evening before diminishing to mostly moderate Tue morning. Fresh NNW to N winds north of 27N between 121W and 133W will subside to moderate by noon today but should pulse back to fresh tonight and Tue night. Starting late Tue night, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area from the northwest which should rise to high by Thu morning. Moderate, long period S to SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by Tue. Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week. $$ Chan