000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020406
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon May 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from northern Costa Rica to 10N100W. 
An ITCZ continues from 10N100W to 09N113W...and from 08N119W to 
04N140W with a surface trough in between near 10N117W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 81W and 92W,
and from 05N to 09N between 127W and 132W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 05N to 12N between 100 W and 
119W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1029 mb high pressure centered well west-northwest of the area
near 32N147W continues to promote moderate to fresh NW winds
along with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Baja California Norte, while 
gentle to moderate NW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail west 
of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas
of 2 to 4 ft are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of 
California, while gentle to moderate winds with seas at 1 to 3 
ft prevail for the rest of the gulf. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere, from Jalisco to the Guatemala border; except
fresh winds just south of Cabo San Lucas. Seas in this area are
in the 4 to 5 ft range.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will persist in 
the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Fresh NW to N 
winds off Baja California Norte will gradually diminish to 
moderate by early Mon morning. W to NW winds just west and south 
of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night 
through Wed night. Moderate NW swell will persist west of Baja 
California Norte through Thu, then build to high toward the 
weekend. Light NW swell will continue west of Baja California Sur
through Thu before increasing to moderate afterward.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Convergent SW winds south of the aforementioned monsoon trough 
are triggering strong thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama. 
Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across
the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. Gentle winds
along with 4 to 5 ft seas exist for the rest of the offshore 
waters, except up to 6 ft off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gentle S to SW winds offshore Colombia and 
Ecuador will become moderate to locally fresh late Tue afternoon 
through Thu morning. Easterly winds off the Papagayo region and 
southern Nicaragua will pulse to moderate during early morning 
hours through Wed morning. Periodic heavy showers and strong 
thunderstorms will persist offshore from Costa Rica to Colombia 
through Tue. Long period S to SW swell will reach the waters off 
South America Tue night and the Central American waters by Wed 
evening, then persist through the latter part of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located 
northwest of the area near 33N145W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the
ITCZ to 26N and west of 125W, according to recent ASCAT data. 
Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 
8 to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north
of 28N and west of 133W, closer to the aforementioned high 
pressure center. Fresh N winds and 7-9 ft seas are found north 
of 27N and east of 126W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ with seas 5-7 ft, while moderate to 
fresh S to SSE winds prevail south of the ITCZ with seas 6-7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE trades are expected to 
persist through Mon morning before diminishing to moderate to
locally fresh Mon afternoon. Fresh N winds north of 27N and east
of 126W will gradually subside to moderate to fresh tonight. 
Near midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the 
area from the northwest. Moderate, long period S to SW swell 
will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by midweek.
Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week.

$$

Chan