000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012106
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N86W to
09N101W. The ITCZ continues from 09N101W to 08N120W to 06N140W. 
Scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 78W
and 89W and from 06N to 11N between 95W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1030 mb high pressure centered well west-northwest of the area
near 33N145W continues to promote moderate to fresh NW winds 
offshore Baja California Norte, while gentle to moderate NW winds
prevail west of Baja California Sur. Moderate to fresh SE to S 
winds are likely occurring in the northern Gulf of California. A 
recent ASCAT pass shows gentle to moderate SE to S winds in the 
southern Gulf. ASCAT shows moderate W to NW winds near Cabo San 
Lucas. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, from Jalisco to 
the Guatemala border. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail off Baja California 
Norte with 5-7 ft seas off Baja California Sur. Seas are 2-3 ft 
in the Gulf of California. A recent altimeter pass shows 4-6 ft 
seas west of Jalisco and south of Baja California Sur. Seas of 
4-5 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected in 
the northern Gulf of California from late this afternoon through
tonight. NW to N winds off Baja California Norte will remain 
moderate to fresh through today, then diminish slightly to
moderate by late tonight. W to NW winds just west and south of 
Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night 
through Wed night. NW swell will persist to the west of Baja 
California Norte for the next few days before subsiding Thu.
Renewed NW swell may affect the waters west of Baja California by
Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Convergent SW winds south of the aforementioned monsoon trough 
are triggering strong thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama. 
Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across
the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. Gentle winds
along with 4 to 5 ft seas exist for the rest of the offshore 
waters, except up to 6 ft off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, generally gentle winds will prevail through 
Mon. Winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will increase to 
moderate S to SW Tue afternoon through Thu night. Gentle winds 
will continue for the remainder of the offshore waters through 
the end of this week. Periodic strong showers and thunderstorms 
will persist offshore from Costa Rica to Colombia through Mon 
morning. Long period S to SW swell will reach the waters off
South America Tue night and the Central American waters by Wed 
night, and persist through the latter part of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located 
northwest of the area near 33N145W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the
ITCZ to 26N and west of 125W, according to recent ASCAT data. 
Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 
8 to 10 ft. Moderate NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north
of 28N and west of 133W, closer to the aforementioned high 
pressure center. Fresh N winds and 7-9 ft seas are found north 
of 27N and east of 126W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ with seas 5-7 ft, while moderate to 
fresh S to SSE winds prevail south of the ITCZ with seas 6-7 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE trades are expected to 
persist through Mon morning before diminishing to moderate to
locally fresh Mon afternoon. Fresh N winds north of 27N and east
of 126W will gradually subside to moderate to fresh tonight. 
Near midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the 
area from the northwest. Moderate, long period S to SW swell 
will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by midweek.
Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week.

$$
Hagen