000 AXPZ20 KNHC 011557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N100W. The ITCZ continues from 09N100W to 09N120W to 04N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 77W and 86W and from 06N to 10N between 93W and 129W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 04N to 12N between 92W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 12N to 14N between 90W and 100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1028 mb high centered well west-northwest of the area near 33N144W continues to promote moderate NNW winds west of Baja California, except for fresh NW well offshore of Baja California Norte. Gentle to locally moderate winds are present in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle wind speeds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft west of Baja California, except 7-9 ft well offshore Baja California Norte. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail in the Gulf of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, periods of fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California late this afternoon through tonight. NW to N winds off Baja California Norte will remain moderate to fresh through today, then become gentle to moderate by tonight. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through Wed night. NW swell will increase slightly to the west of Baja California Norte this afternoon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Convergent SW winds south of the aforementioned monsoon trough are triggering strong thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama. Gentle to moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. Gentle winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas exist for the rest of the offshore waters. For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell across much of the region will subside slightly tonight, before gradually building again midweek. Moderate SW winds offshore Colombia and Ecuador will diminish to gentle this evening, then increase to moderate again Tue afternoon through Thu. Gentle winds will continue for the remainder of the offshore waters through the end of this week. Periodic strong showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore from Costa Rica to Colombia through Mon morning. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 33N144W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 123W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Moderate with locally fresh trades and 6 to 7 ft seas are found north of 26N and west of 132W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. Fresh to locally strong N winds and 8-10 ft seas are found north of 27N and east of 126W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ with seas 5-7 ft, while moderate to locally fresh S to SSE winds prevail south of the ITCZ with seas 6-7 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned NE trades are expected to persist through Mon morning before diminishing to moderate to locally fresh Mon afternoon. Fresh to locally strong N winds north of 27N between 119W and 126W will gradually subside to moderate to fresh tonight. Near midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area from the northwest. Moderate S to SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 130W by midweek. Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week. $$ Hagen