000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010932
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
border to 09N92W. An ITCZ continues from 09N92W to 07N123W, then
from 06N128W to beyond 140W at 04N; a surface trough is in
between near 08N126W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring 
up from 07N to 13N between the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coast and 
113W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present 
from 06N to 10N between 117W and 123W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

As verified by the satellite scatterometer data this morning, a 
1030 mb high centered well west-northwest of the area near 
32N142W continues to promote NNW winds; moderate to locally 
fresh just west of Baja California Sur and gentle to moderate 
near Baja California Norte. Fresh NW to NNW winds prevail well 
off Baja California Norte, west of 119.5W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft 
west of Baja California Sur and central Mexico, and 5 to 8 ft 
west of Baja California Norte. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 
ft seas are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW to N
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across the southern 
Mexico offshore waters, and near Jalisco.

For the forecast, NW to N winds off Baja California Norte will 
remain moderate to fresh through Sun, then become gentle to 
moderate by Sun night. W to NW winds just west and south of Baja 
California Sur will continue pulsing to fresh at night through 
Wed night. Periods of fresh to strong SW winds are expected in 
the northern Gulf of California late Sun afternoon through Sun 
night. Light NW swell will increase to moderate west of Baja 
California Norte Sun evening, and west of Baja California Sur Mon
night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Convergent west winds south of the aforementioned monsoon trough
are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms near the 
southern Colombia coast and adjacent waters. Gentle to moderate 
S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore 
waters of Panama, Colombia and Ecuador. Gentle SE to S winds 
along with 4 to 6 ft seas exist for the rest of the offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell across much of the 
region will subside slightly by Mon, before gradually building 
again after midweek. Moderate winds offshore from Colombia and 
Ecuador will diminish to gentle this evening, then increase to 
moderate again Tue afternoon through Thu. Gentle winds will 
continue for the remainder of the offshore waters into the next 
weekend. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will persist 
offshore from Central America and Colombia through Mon 
afternoon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located 
northwest of the area near 32N142W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the 
ITCZ to 26N and west of 122W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this
area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Moderate with locally 
fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found north of 26N and west 
of 132W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. 
Gentle to moderate E to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail 
for the remainder of the area. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE trades are expected to 
persist through tonight before diminishing to moderate Mon 
afternoon. Fresh to locally strong N winds north of 27N and 
between 119W and 128W will gradually subside to between moderate
and fresh tonight. Near midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell
should enter the area from the northwest. Moderate S to SW swell
will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 120W by midweek.
Elsewhere, little change is expected most of this week.

$$

Chan