000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010503 AAA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
0405 UTC Sun May 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N85W across
08N95W to 08N108W. An ITCZ continues from 08N108W to 06N125W to 
to beyond 140W at 06N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is flaring up from 06N to 12N between the Costa Rica
coast and 106W, and from 07N to 11N between 117W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1030 mb high is centered well west-northwest of the area near 
33N140W continues to promote moderate to locally fresh NNW winds
just west of Baja California Sur and gentle to moderate near 
Baja California Norte. Fresh NW to NNW winds prevail well off 
Baja California Norte, west of 119.5W. Seas west of Baja 
California are 5-7 ft, except up to 8 ft well off Baja California
Norte. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California, 
while Gentle to moderate NW winds are present from the southern 
Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 
with seas 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, NW to N winds off the Baja California 
peninsula will remain moderate to locally fresh through Sun, then
become gentle to moderate by Sun night. Pulses of fresh to 
strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California 
late Sun afternoon through Sun night. Fresh W to NW winds will 
pulse at night south of Cabo San Lucas through Wed night. Light 
NW swell will increase to moderate west of Baja California Norte 
Sun evening, and west of Baja California Sur Mon night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Convergent west winds south of the aforementioned monsoon trough
are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms off the
southern Colombia coast. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail across the offshore waters of Panama,
Colombia and Ecuador. Gentle SE to S winds along with seas of 4 
to 6 ft exist for the rest of the offshore waters.

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell across much of the 
region will subside slightly by Mon, before gradually building 
again after midweek. Moderate winds offshore from Colombia and 
Ecuador will diminish to gentle late Sun, then increase to 
moderate again Tue night into Wed. Gentle winds will continue for
the remainder of the offshore waters. Enhanced showers and 
thunderstorms will persist offshore of Panama and Costa Rica 
through Sun evening.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located 
northwest of the area near 33N140W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the 
ITCZ to 26N and west of 122W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this
area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Moderate with locally
fresh trades and 6 to 7 ft seas are found north of 26N and west 
of 132W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center.
Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
for the remainder of the area. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE to E trades are expected
to persist through Sun before diminishing to moderate early next
week. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue north of 27N
and east of 128W through Sun morning before diminishing. Near 
midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area
from the northwest. Moderate S to SW swell will increase slightly
south of 05N and east of 125W by the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, little change is expected through the middle of next 
week.

$$

Chan