000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 08N108W. The ITCZ continues from 08N108W to 06N130W to 06N140W. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated to scattered strong convection is present from 02N to 13N between 77W and 87W. Similar convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 87W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 10N between 104.5W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1030 mb high is centered well west-northwest of the area near 33N141W. Recent ASCAT data show moderate to locally fresh NNW winds west of Baja California Sur and gentle to moderate near Baja California Norte. Fresh NW to NNW winds prevail well off Baja California Norte, west of 119.5W. Seas west of Baja California are 5-7 ft, except up to 8 ft well off Baja California Norte. The ASCAT data show light to gentle winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds are likely present from the southern Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with seas 4-5 ft. For the forecast, NW to N winds will remain moderate to locally fresh just off the coast of Baja California Sur through Sun, then become gentle to moderate by Sun night. Pulses of fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Sun night. Fresh W to NW winds will pulse at night south of Cabo San Lucas through Wed night. Seas will not change much over the next few days as NW swell continues off Baja California. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast from Colombia to Nicaragua. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above for details. Gentle winds and seas of 4-5 ft prevail north of the monsoon trough. Moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, along with seas of 5-7 ft in S to SW swell, except for 4-5 ft near the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama. For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell across much of the region will subside slightly by Mon evening, before gradually building again mid to late week. Moderate winds S of the monsoon trough will diminish to gentle late Sun, then increase to moderate again Tue night into Wed. Gentle winds will continue north of the monsoon trough. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore of Panama and Costa Rica through Sun afternoon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure located northwest of the area near 33N141W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE trades north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 122W. Moderate trade-wind swell over this area is maintaining seas at 7 to 10 ft. Somewhat lighter winds and lower seas are found north of 27N and west of 132W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. ASCAT shows fresh N winds north of 27N and east of 130W, where seas are 7-10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere. Moderate S swell is affecting areas south of 05N and east of 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned NE to E trades are expected to persist through Sun before diminishing to moderate early next week. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue north of 27N and east of 128W through Sun morning before diminishing. Near midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area from the northwest. Moderate S to SW swell will increase slightly south of 05N and east of 125W by the middle of next week. Elsewhere, little change is expected through the middle of next week. $$ Chan