000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from southern Costa Rica near 09N84W to
08N100W to 06N115W. The ITCZ continues from 06N115W to 05N130W to
05N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate with embedded isolated to
scattered strong convection is present from 05N to 11N between
82W and 98W. Similar convection is noted from 03N to 08N between
77W and 82W. Isolated moderate convection is present from 04N to
10N between 102W and 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1029 mb high centered northwest of the area at 33N139W 
combined with lower pressure over northwest Mexico and southern 
Arizona is sustaining moderate to locally fresh NW to NNW winds 
across the waters west of Baja California, except north of El 
Rosario within 90 nm of the coast, where gentle winds prevail. 
Seas around 7 ft prevail in these waters, except for 7 to 9 ft 
well offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW to N 
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident in the central and 
southern Gulf of California. Gentle winds are found over the 
northern part of the Gulf. Light to gentle and variable winds 
prevail across the waters to the southeast of Manzanillo, with 4 
to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, NW to N winds will remain moderate to locally 
fresh just off the coast of central and southern Baja California 
peninsula through Sun, then become gentle to moderate by Sun 
night. Pulses of fresh to strong SW winds are expected in the 
northern Gulf of California Sun afternoon through Sun night.
Fresh W to NW winds will pulse at night south of Cabo San Lucas 
through Wed night. Seas will not change much over the next few
days as NW swell continues off Baja California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are noted off the coast from
Colombia to Costa Rica. See the monsoon trough/ITCZ section above
for details. Fresh easterly winds along with seas to 5 ft are 
offshore from the Papagayo region and southern Nicaragua.
Moderate S to SW winds are noted south of 07N, along with seas of
5-7 ft in S to SW swell, except for 3-5 ft near the coast of 
Colombia and eastern Panama. Mainly light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere with 4-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh easterly winds offshore from the Papagayo 
region and southern Nicaragua will diminish to gentle to 
moderate this afternoon. Moderate, long-period S to SW swell 
across much of the region will subside to light by Mon evening, 
before gradually building again after midweek. Periodic showers 
and thunderstorms will persist in the Central American offshore 
waters through Sun afternoon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A tight pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high pressure located
north of the area near 33N139W and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining fresh NE to E trades from 
north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 120W. Moderate trade-wind 
swell over this area is maintaining seas at 7 to 9 ft. Somewhat
lighter winds and lower seas are found north of 26N and west of
132W, closer to the aforementioned high pressure center. Fresh N
winds are found north of 27N and east of 131W along with seas of
7 to 9 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE to E trades are expected
to persist through Sun before diminishing to moderate early next
week. Fresh to locally strong N winds will continue north of 27N
and east of 128W through Sun morning before diminishing. Near 
midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the area
from the northwest. Elsewhere, little change is expected through
the middle of next week.

$$
Hagen