000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300947
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from eastern Panama across 07N100W to 
05N119W. An ITCZ continues from 05N119W across 05N130W to beyond 
140W at 07N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from 06N to 09N between 78W and 94W, including the Panama
coastline. Scattered moderate convection exists from 03N to 06N 
between 80W and 107W, and from 07N to 11N between 108W and 121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1029 mb high centered northwest of the area at 33N138W is 
sustaining moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the waters west
and southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Seas of 6 to 8 
ft in NW swell prevail in these waters. Gentle to moderate NW to
N winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are evident in the central and 
southern Gulf of California. Gentle SW to W winds along with 1 to
2 ft seas are found over the northern part of the Gulf. Gentle 
to moderate SW to NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are across the 
southern Mexican offshore waters, except for light and variable 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, NW to N winds will remain moderate to fresh 
just off the coast of central and southern Baja California 
peninsula through Sun, then become gentle to moderate by Sun 
night. Pulses of fresh to locally strong westerly winds are 
expected at the northern Gulf of California Sun night and Tue 
night, and south of Cabo San Lucas during nighttime through Wed 
night. Moderate, long-period NW swell will subside to light west 
of Baja California peninsula tonight. This swell should rise back
to moderate west of Baja California Norte by Sun night, and west
of Baja California Sur by Wed night.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A mid-level trough across the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala is
triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coast of
Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh easterly winds along with seas 
of 5 to 6 ft are offshore from the Papagayo region and southern 
Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh S to SW winds 
and seas at 5 to 7 ft are between southern Colombia/Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 
ft in S to SW swell persist across the remainder of the offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, fresh easterly winds offshore from the Papagayo 
region and southern Nicaragua will become gentle to moderate 
by this evening. Moderate, long-period S to SW swell across much
of the region will subside to light by Mon evening, before 
gradually building again after midweek. Periodic showers and 
thunderstorms are going to persist in the central American 
offshore waters through Sun afternoon.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A mid-level trough near 14N125W is producing scattered showers
from 13N to 18N between 118W and 131W. A tight pressure gradient
between a 1029 mb high located northwest of the area near 
33N138W and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
maintaining moderate to fresh NE to E trades from north of the 
ITCZ to 26N and west of 125W. Moderate trade-wind swell over 
this area is maintaining seas at 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate E 
to SE winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate long-period 
S to SW swell are noted elsewhere, except in mixed swell west of 
115W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned NE to E trades are expected
to subside to between gentle and moderate by Mon night. This
should cause the trade-wind swell to gradually decay starting 
Sun, allowing the 6 to 8 ft seas to slowly diminish. Near 
midweek, a moderate long-period NW swell should enter the 
eastern Pacific waters. Elsewhere, little change is expected 
through the middle of next week.

$$

Chan