475 
AXPZ20 KNHC 282146
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over
northwestern Colombia to 08N83W to 09N95W to 09N110W to 09N120W 
to 09N127W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm
north of the trough between 114W-118W, also between 120W-123W
and within 150 nm N of the trough between 110W-113W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 81W-85W, within 
240 nm N of the trough between 123W-126W and within 180 nm N of 
of the trough between 131W-135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh to locally strong NW winds are present near and NW of 
Punta Eugenia, along with seas of 7-9 ft to long-period NW 
swell. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds are elsewhere W of Baja 
California, with seas of 6-8 ft also due to the NW swell. 
Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are over the northern Gulf of 
California, moderate W-NW winds are over the central part of the
Gulf and generally light to gentle winds are over the southern 
part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except for lower 
seas of 2-3 ft in the central section and slightly higher seas of
3-4 ft in the southern section.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh W to NW winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will become N at fresh speeds late tonight, then 
become light and variable Fri and into early next week. Fresh to 
locally strong NW winds offshore Baja California will change 
little through Fri night. Long-period NW swell will continue over
the waters west of Baja California through Mon, except S of Cabo
San Lazaro where it will subside beginning late on Sat. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light NE winds are N of the surface trough, with gentle to 
locally moderate S-SW winds to the S of the trough. Latest 
ASCAT data notes fresh to strong NE-E winds near the Papagayo 
region and offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a 
long-period S-SW swell are over these waters. Scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the waters S of 
Costa Rica and Panama S to 04N and between 79W-84W. Similar 
activity is occurring along and within 60 nm offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
Papagayo region and offshore the southern Nicaragua waters will 
diminish to fresh speeds Fri. By Sat afternoon, these winds will 
become gentle SE to S in direction. Long-period moderate S to SW
swell will continue across the region through the period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Moderate to fresh trades are N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of about
125W. Long-period NW to N swell over this area is the primarily
swell component that is mixing with other swell. This is 
resulting in seas of 8 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds 
along with seas of 5-7 ft seas due to long-period S to SW swell 
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will 
continue to linger in the western forecast waters over the next 
few days, mostly N of 09N and W of 125W. Seas will increase 
slightly to 9 ft on Sat over this area and subside by early next
week. Otherwise, southerly swell should keep 5-7 ft seas across 
the remainder of the basin through the weekend.

$$
Aguirre