000 AXPZ20 KNHC 281600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure of 1008 mb over northwestern Colombia to 08N83W to 09N96W to 09N110W to 09N120W to 09N127W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 111W-125W, and within 150 nm north of the trough between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 79W-84W, also within 180 nm north of the trough between 130W-133W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 132W-137W and within 90 nm south of the trough between 94W-100W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring near and NW of Punta Eugenia, along with seas of 7-9 ft to long-period NW swell. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds are elsewhere W of Baja California, with seas of 6-8 ft also due to the NW swell. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds are over the northern Gulf of California, while moderate SW-W winds are over the central part of the Gulf and light and variable winds are over the southern part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except for lower seas of 2-3 ft in the central section and slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by early this afternoon, then become moderate W to NW early tonight and fresh from the N late tonight. Winds will become light and variable Fri through Sat night. Winds over the Baja California offshores are expected to increase to fresh to locally strong by this evening into tonight. Long-period NW swell will continue over the waters west of Baja California through Mon, except S of Cabo San Lazaro where it will subside beginning late on Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light NE winds are N of the surface trough, with gentle to locally moderate S-SW winds to the S of the trough. Overnight ASCAT data showed fresh NE-E winds near the Papagayo region and offshore southern Nicaragua. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a long- period S-SW swell are over these waters. The scattered moderate to isolated strong convection that earlier was offshore the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala coasts has weakened and ha become isolated in coverage. Scattered moderate convection is increasing over the waters S of Panama to 04N and between 79W- 84W. For the forecast, the long-period moderate S-SW swell will persist across the region through the week. The fresh NE-E winds across the Papagayo region and offshore the southern Nicaragua waters will change little through tonight, then become moderate to fresh E to SE winds Fri and Fri night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Moderate to fresh trades are N of the ITCZ to 25N and W of about 125W. Long-period NW to N swell over this area is the primarily swell component that is mixing with other swell. This is resulting in seas of 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas due to long-period S to SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, northerly swell with seas to 8 ft will continue to linger in the western forecast waters over the next few days, mostly N of 09N and W of 125W. Seas will increase slightly to 9 ft on Sat over this area and subside by early next week. Otherwise, southerly swell should keep 5-7 ft seas across the remainder of the basin through the weekend. $$ Aguirre