000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241001
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb that 
is over the far southwestern Caribbean Sea near 08N83W to 
08N94W to 08N105W to 08N114W, where overnight latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
08N120W to 05N130W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ 
between 118W-121W, and within 90 nm north of ITCZ between
121W-123W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 123W-125W, also within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ between 129W-130W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ
between 135W-136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High remains present over the offshore waters of Baja California.
The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively 
lower pressures over Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds 
along with 8-11 ft seas in long-period NW to N swell across the 
waters W and SW of the Baja California peninsula. Light and 
variable winds, with 5-6 ft seas in a S to SW swell are over the 
S Mexico offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas 3 
ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for slightly 
higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section of the Gulf. 
Patches of haze are possible offshore from central and S Mexico 
due to nearby persistent agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja 
California will diminish to mainly moderate speeds this
afternoon, then diminish slightly to gentle and moderate speeds 
early on Mon and change little through Thu night. Strong to near-
gale N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late
Tue night through late Wed night into early on Thu. The long- 
period NW swell over the waters SW and W of Baja California will
begin to gradually today and into early next week allowing for 
seas to subside.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to occassionally moderate S to SW winds exist over the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and offshore 
waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a moderate 
S to SW swell are over the offshore waters. Patches of haze are 
possible offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby 
persistent agricultural fires.

For the forecast, the long-period moderate S to SW swell will 
persist across the region through most of next week. Fresh 
easterly winds are possible near the Papagayo region and Offshore
Nicaragua during the middle and latter part of the upcoming 
week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A broad surface ridging extends from a strong 1031 high center 
that northwest of the area near 33N138W southeastward to 24N120W
and to near 18N113W. The gradient between this ridge and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh 
NE to E winds west of line from near the southern tip of Baja 
California to 09N120W and to 04N140W. NW to N fresh to locally 
strong winds are N of 24N between 120W-122W. Long-period NW to N 
swell throughout this area is producing seas of 8-11 ft, except 
for 5-8 ft seas in the NW part of the area. Gentle to moderate 
winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas due to long-period S to SW 
swell are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the long-period NW to N swell will begin to
to gradually decay today and into early next week allowing for 
seas to subside. The fresh to locally strong NW to N winds N of
24N between 120W-122W will diminish to fresh speeds this
afternoon. The southerly swell should sustain 5-7 ft seas across
the remainder of the basin through most of next week.

$$
Aguirre