000 AXPZ20 KNHC 240404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Apr 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb that is over the far southwestern Caribbean Sea near 10N81W southwest to coast at 09N83W and continues to 07N90W to 08N103W and to 08N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W-120W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 125W- 130W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 120W-125W and also between 134W-136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High remains present over the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Mexico is supporting fresh NW to N winds along with 8-12 ft seas in long-period NW swell across the waters W and SW of the Baja California peninsula. Light and variable winds, with 5-6 ft seas in a S to SW swell are over the S Mexico offshore waters. Gentle to moderate winds, with seas 3 ft or less are in the Gulf of California, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft in the southern section of the Gulf. Patches of haze are possible offshore from central and S Mexico due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, the fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California will diminish to mainly moderate speeds Sun afternoon, then diminish slightly to gentle and moderate speeds early on Mon and change little through Thu night. Strong to near-gale N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late Tue night through late Wed night into early on Thu. The long-period NW swell over the water SW and W of Baja California will begin to gradually decay Sun and into early next week allowing for seas to subside. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Gentle to occassionally moderate S to SW winds exist over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, and offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a moderate S to SW swell are over the offshore waters. Patches of haze are possible offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, the Long-period moderate S to SW swell will persist across the region through most of next week. Fresh easterly winds are possible near the Papagayo region and Offshore Nicaragua during the middle and latter part of the upcoming week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A broad surface ridging extends from a strong 1030 high center that northwest of the area near 34N141W southeastward to 25N120W and to near 18N112W. The gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly fresh NE to E winds west of line from near the southern tip of Baja California to 09N120W and to 04N140W. NW to N fresh to locally strong winds are N of 24N between 120W-122W. Long-period NW to N swell throughout this area is producing seas of 8-11 ft, except for 5-8 ft seas in the NW part of the area. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of 5-7 ft seas due to long-period S to SW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, the long-period NW to N swell will begin to to gradually decay Sun and into early next week allowing for seas to subside. The southerly swell should sustain 5-7 ft seas across the remainder of the basin through most of next week. $$ Aguirre