000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211008 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Apr 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from along the coast of northwest Colombia to southern Panama, and continues to 09N79W to 08N93W to 08N107W to 07N118W and to 07N127W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 100W-104W, also within 30 nm of the trough between 93W-100W and between 113W-116W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong NW winds over the waters mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas associated to these winds are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail S of Cabo San Lazaro while light and variable winds are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, SE-S winds are noted, except for light and variable winds over the northern section. Areas of haze are offshore the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will continue to pulse offshore Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro through Fri. Stronger high pressure building across the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across most of the offshore waters of Baja California Fri night into Sat. Long- period NW swell generated by a strong and complex low pressure system that is well north of the area will reach the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia on Fri, building seas up to 13 ft near 30N120W by Fri evening. This swell event will continue to propagate southeastward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by late Sat afternoon or early evening. At that time, seas of 8-12 ft are expected across the entire offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds will gradually veer to the W and NW across the Gulf of California Fri through Sat and change little into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are presently in the Papagayo region west to near 87W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned surface trough, with mainly light and variable winds to its N. Seas are 4-6 ft due to a S to SW swell. Haze is possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell will raise seas slightly over the Central American offshore waters Fri night and Sat, before subsiding Sat night through Mon night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure covers the area N of about 15N and W of 125W. Moderate to occasional fresh trade winds are noted to the south of the high pressure from 10N to 22N and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are near the corresponding ridge axis from 24N to 28N and W of 120W, while W to NW moderate to fresh winds are N of 28N and W of 127W due to a weakening cold front that is over the northwest part of the area from 30N131W to 26N140W and a pre- frontal trough that extends from 30N127W to near 26N133W. Seas are generally 5-7 ft N of 10N and W of 120W, except behind the cold front where 8-10 ft seas are at the beginning of a rather extensive pulse of long-period NW swell. This swell set was generated by a distant and complex low pressure system. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will dissipate today. The long-period NW swell will continue to propagate southeastward across the forecast waters over the next couple of days. The swell will grow wave heights to a large range of 12-16 ft over the NW part of the area by this evening. On Fri, seas in the range of 10-14 ft will be present over the northern waters north of 27N and between 122W-136W. These seas will shift to the NE part of the area Fri afternoon and evening, then slowly subside Sat. $$ Aguirre