000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Costa Rica/Panama border to 06N105W to 09N125W. The ITCZ continues from 09N1125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 80W and 120W. Most of this convective activity is along and S of the surface trough axis. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Mexico supports fresh to locally strong NW winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas associated to these winds are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail S of Cabo San Lazaro while light and variable winds are noted per scatterometer data across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, SE-S winds are noted, except for light and variable winds over the northern section. Areas of haze are offshore the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will continue to pulse offshore Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro through Fri. Then, a stronger high pressure building across the area will support fresh to strong NW winds across most of the offshore waters of Baja California Fri night into Sat. Long-period NW swell, associated with a strong low pressure system, will reach the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia on Fri, building seas up to 13 ft near 30N120W by Fri evening. This swell event will continue to propagate southeastward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat evening. At that time, seas of 8-11 ft are expected across the entire offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds will gradually veer to the W and NW across the Gulf of California Fri through Sat and change little Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo region west to near 89W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned surface trough, with mainly light and variable winds to its N. Seas are 4-6 ft due to a S to SW swell. Patchy areas of haze are possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell will raise seas slightly over the Central American offshore waters Fri night and Sat, before subsiding Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of about 115W. Moderate trade winds are noted along the southern periphery of the ridge, mainly from 10N to 15N W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis over the NW waters. A cold front is near 30N140W followed by fresh to strong NW winds and very rough seas. Seas are generally 5-7 ft N of 10N and W of 120W, except behind the cold front where 8-9 ft seas there mark the leading edge of a rather extensive pulse of long-period NW swell. This swell event is generated by a distant and complex low pressure system. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move across the NW waters tonight into Thu while weakening. Long-period NW swell follows the front and will to propagate southeastward across the forecast waters over the next couple of days. The swell will grow wave heights to a large range of 12-16 ft over the NW part of the area by Thu evening. On Fri, seas of 12 to 14 ft will dominate the N waters NW of a line from 30N120W to 24N130W to 23N135W to 30N137W. $$ GR