396 AXPZ20 KNHC 201527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Costa Rica/Panama border to 06N95W to 08N110W to 10N125W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N137W. The ITCZ extends from 10N137W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 80W and 120W. Most of this convective activity is along and S of the trough axis. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The combination of a ridge that is present over the waters west of Baja California with relatively lower pressures over Mexico supports a relatively tight pressure gradient between Baja California Norte and 120W. This is leading to fresh to strong NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, N of 26N between 114W and 116W. Seas associated to these winds are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds prevail in the Gulf of California, except for light and variable winds over the northern section. Areas of haze are offshore the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will prevail offshore Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro through Fri. Long-period NW swell, associated with a strong low pressure system, will reach the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia on Fri, building seas up to 13 ft near 30N120W by Fri evening. This swell event will continue to propagate southeastward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat evening. At that time, seas of 8-11 ft are expected across the entire offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds will gradually veer to the W and NW across the Gulf of California Fri through Sat and change little Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo region west to near 87W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned surface trough, with W to NW winds to its N. Seas are 4-6 ft due to a S to SW swell. Patchy areas of haze are possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell will raise seas slightly over the Central American offshore waters Fri night and Sat, before subsiding Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of about 120W. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near 10N137W. The pressure gradient between the low and the ridge is allowing for an area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 15N between 125W and 135W along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, the gradient associated to the high pressure is maintaining generally moderate NE trade winds over much of the tropical eastern Pacific waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds near the ridge. Seas elsewhere are also in the 5-7 ft range, except in the extreme NW corner of the area where 8-9 ft seas there mark the leading edge of a rather extensive pulse of long-period NW swell. This swell event is generated by a distant and complex low pressure system. For the forecast, the low pressure near 10N137W will continue to track in a westward motion, weaken to a trough late tonight and dissipate Thu. The aforementioned long-period NW swell will propagate southeastward across the forecast waters today. The swell will grow wave heights to a large range of 12-16 ft over the NW part of the area by Thu night. A weakening cold front just out ahead of the NW swell will move across the northern waters today through Thu. The front is expected to be followed by moderate to fresh NW winds south of 30N, but with higher winds of fresh to strong speeds just north of 30N. $$ GR