000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200943 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Apr 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the Costa Rican/Panamanian border to 06N90W to 09N108W to 05N110W to 10N118W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 10N132W and to 09N135W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south of the trough between 108W-114W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the trough between 84W- 87W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The combination of high pressure that is present over the waters west of Baja California with relatively lower pressure over Mexico supports a tight gradient between Baja California Norte and 120W. This is leading to fresh to strong NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, especially N of 28N E of 118W. Seas associated to these winds are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds prevail in the Gulf of California, except for light and variable winds over the northern section. Moderate W to NW winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas of 5-7 ft. Areas of haze are offshore the coast of Mexico south of Cabo Corrientes due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will prevail offshore Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight, then diminish to mainly moderate to fresh speeds for the rest of the week. Long period NW swell, associated with a strong low pressure system, will reach the offshore waters of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia on Fri, building seas up to 13 ft near 30N120W by Fri evening. This swell event will continue to propagate southeastward reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by Sat evening. At that time, seas of 8-11 ft are expected across the entire offshore forecast waters of Baja California. Winds will gradually veer to the W and NW across the Gulf of California Fri through Sat and change little Sun and Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted in the Papagayo region west to near 87W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned surface trough, with W to NW winds to its N. Seas are 4-6 ft due to a S to SW swell. Patchy areas of haze are possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby persistent agricultural fires. For the forecast, long-period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell will raise seas slightly over the Central American offshore waters Fri night and Sat, before subsiding Sat night through Sun night. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A high pressure ridge over the northern waters that is anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 26N136W is controlling the weather regime over the waters mainly N of 15N and W of about 119W. A 1010 mb low is analyzed near 10N132W. The gradient between the low and the ridge is allowing for moderate to locally fresh trade winds to exist from 10N to 21N and west of about 126W along with seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, the gradient associated to the high pressure is maintaining generally moderate NE trade winds over much of the tropical eastern Pacific waters, with the exception of light to gentle winds near the high center and the ridge. Seas elsewhere are also in the 5-7 ft range, except in the extreme NW corner of the area where 8-9 ft seas there mark the leading edge of a pulse of long-period NW swell. This swell was generated by a distant and complex low pressure system. For the forecast, the low pressure near 10N132W will continue to track in a westward motion, weaken to a trough late tonight and dissipate Thu. The aforementioned long-period NW swell will propagate southeastward across the forecast waters today. The swell will grow wave heights to a large range of 12-16 ft over the NW part of the area by Thu night. A rather weak cold front just out ahead of the NW swell will move across the northern waters today through Thu. The front is expected to be followed by moderate to fresh NW winds south of 30N, but with higher winds of fresh to strong speeds just north of 30N. $$ Aguirre