000
AXPZ20 KNHC 192123
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N90W to 06N110W to a 
1012 mb low pressure located near 09N127W to 07N132W. The ITCZ 
axis continues from 07N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection can be found from 05N- 08N E of 
85W, from 10N-13N between 93W-99W, and from 06N-11N between 130W-
133W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 98W-
116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge across the waters W of Baja California combined with low
pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong NW winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of 28N E 
of 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft within these winds based on altimeter
data. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California. Fresh to strong N winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec and downwind to near 14N with seas of 6-7 ft. Patchy 
areas of haze are possible offshore southern Mexico due to nearby
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will 
prevail offshore Baja California and N of Cabo San Lazaro through
Wed night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected the 
remainder of the week. Long period NW swell, associated with a 
strong low pressure system, will reach the offshore waters of 
Baja California N of Punta Eugenia on Fri, building seas of up 
to 12 ft near 30N120W by Fri evening. This swell event will
continue to propagate SE reaching the Revillagigedo Islands by
Sat evening. At that time, seas of 8-11 ft are expected to 
prevail across the entire offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Fresh to strong N winds in the Tehuantepec region 
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. Winds will 
gradually veer to the W and NW across the Gulf of California Fri 
through Sat.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted in the Papagayo region to 
about 87W based on scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate S to 
SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned surface trough, with W
to NW winds N of it. Seas are 4-6 ft. Patchy areas of haze are 
possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region tonight through Wed morning. Long period SW swell  
will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of
southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell event will reach the coast
of Central America by Fri night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N
of 15N and W of 118W. A dissipating cold front is over the NW 
corner of the forecast area. Moderate to locally fresh winds are
likely found on the NW quadrant of the low center with seas of 
6-8 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across 
much of the tropical eastern Pacific waters with seas generally 5
to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, the low pressure located near 09N127W will 
move westward and open up into a trough on Wed, and dissipate by
Thu. Large and long period NW swell generated by a distant and 
strong low pressure system will spread SE across the forecast 
waters on Wed. Seas are expected to build to 12-16 ft in NW 
swell over the NW part of the area on Thu. 

$$
GR