000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N110W to a 1010 mb low
pressure located near 09N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-08N between 78W-84W,
from 10N-13N between 92W-96W, and from 06N-11N between 127W-131W.
Similar convection is near 05N101W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A ridge across the waters W of Baja California combined with low
pressures over Mexico supports fresh to strong NW winds across
the offshore waters of Baja California, particularly N of 27N E
of 118W. Seas are 5-7 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate
SE-S winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong
N winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to 
near 14N with seas of 6-7 ft. Patchy areas of haze are possible
offshore southern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail 
offshore Baja California through Wed morning, then mainly
moderate to fresh winds are expected the remainder of the week. 
week. Large NW swell, associated with a distant cold front, will
reach the Baja California offshore waters on Fri, building seas 
of up to 12 ft N of Punta Eugenia by Fri night. Fresh to strong 
N winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are seen S of the above mentioned
surface trough with W to NW winds N of it. Seas are 4-6 ft.
Patchy areas of haze are possible over the offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region tonight through Wed morning. Long period SW swell  
will continue to propagate across the region, with a new set of
southerly swell reaching the waters between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands on Fri. This swell event will reach the coast
of Central America by Fri night.


REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge dominates the northern forecast waters mainly N
of 18N and W of 118W. A weakening cold front is over the NW
corner of the forecast area. Locally fresh winds are likely 
found on either side of a 1010 mb low pressure analyzed near 
09N127W, with a small area of 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed swell. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds prevail across much of 
the tropical eastern Pacific waters with seas generally 4 to 6 
ft. 

For the forecast, the low pressure located near 09N127W will 
move westward along a surface trough through Thu, and dissipate
by Fri. Large NW swell generated by a distant low pressure and 
frontal system will spread SE across the forecast waters on Wed.
Seas are expected to build to 14-15 ft in NW swell over the NW 
part of the area on Thu. 

$$
GR