000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190903
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 19 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to a 1010 mb low near 
09N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 
04N to 13N and E of 100W, and from 02N to 16N and W of 119W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1023 mb high pressure near 28N132W and low pressure over 
western Mexico is maintaining a tight pressure gradient offshore 
Baja California. Recent scatterometer data show moderate 
northerly winds prevail offshore the Baja peninsula, with fresh 
winds closer to the coast north of Punta Eugenia. Latest 
altimeter data indicate seas are 5 to 7 ft over this area. 
Elsewhere, moderate NW winds continue over the central and 
southern Gulf of California, with light to gentle flow over the 
northern Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds are noted in 
scatterometer data offshore SW Mexico. Patchy areas of haze are 
possible offshore southern Mexico due to nearby agricultural 
fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will
prevail offshore Baja California this week. By Thu evening, 
large NW swell associated with a distant cold front will reach 
the Baja California offshore waters, causing seas to build across
the region through Sat night. Fresh to strong northerly winds 
will pulse near the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then diminish 
by tonight.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Satellite data indicate scattered showers continue offshore 
Costa Rica and western Panama associated to the surface trough 
that extends across the region. Scatterometer winds depict 
generally moderate S to SW flow in this region. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle flow is occurring off the coasts of Guatemala, El 
Salvador, and Nicaragua. Farther south, SW swell is producing 5 
to 7 ft seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Patchy 
areas of haze are possible over the offshore waters of Guatemala,
El Salvador, and Nicaragua due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse near the 
Papagayo region offshore southern Nicaragua tonight through Wed 
morning. Moderate southerly swell is expected to spread northward
across the region later this week and reach the offshore waters 
of Colombia and Panama by Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge anchored by 1023 mb high pressure near 28N132W
is supporting an area of moderate NE winds from 08N to 20N west 
of 115W based on recent scatterometer data. Locally fresh winds 
are likely found on either side of a 1010 mb low pressure 
analyzed near 09N127W, with a small area of 6 to 7 ft seas in 
mixed swell and NE wind waves. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
trade winds prevail across much of the tropical eastern Pacific 
waters with seas generally 4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, a weak low near 08N125W will move westward 
along a surface trough through midweek and enhance winds and seas
near and north of its center until it dissipates later this 
week. Large NW swell generated by a distant low pressure and 
frontal system will spread SE across the basin beginning on Thu 
and reach 10N by this weekend. 

$$
ERA