000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181521
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 07N93W to a 1010 mb low 
near 09N123W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is occurring from 04N to 09N between 80W and 86W, and 
from 05N to 12N between 111W and 126W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A tight pressure gradient between high pressure well offshore 
and low pressure over western Mexico is supporting fresh to 
strong northerly winds just offshore Baja California. These winds
are producing 5 to 8 ft seas between the Baja peninsula and 
Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh northerly winds 
prevail well offshore Baja California, and moderate NW winds are 
noted over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle variable winds
are occurring over the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Patchy 
areas of haze are possible offshore southern Mexico due to nearby
agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northerly winds will
prevail offshore Baja California this week. Moderate NW swell
west of the Baja California peninsula will continue through Thu.
Starting Thu evening, large NW swell associated with a cold 
front north of the area should reach the Baja California 
offshore waters, causing seas to build through Fri night. 
Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse near the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec tonight into Tue morning.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate S to SW winds are occurring over the offshore waters of
Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Elsewhere, light to gentle
variable winds are noted closer to the coast of Central America.
Gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands, with peak seas near 8 ft to the south of
the islands in SW swell. Patchy areas of haze are possible over 
the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua due 
to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse near the
Papagayo region offshore southern Nicaragua late Tue night 
through Wed morning. Moderate southerly swell could spread 
northward across the region late this week and reach the 
offshore waters of Colombia and Panama by Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface high pressure ridge extends roughly from 30N126W to 
26N140W. This is supporting a large area of moderate NE winds 
from 08N to 20N west of 120W. Some locally fresh winds are
occurring between the ridge and a 1010 mb low pressure analyzed 
near 09N123W, with seas to 8 ft in mixed swell and NE wind waves. 
Elsewhere, seas are generally in the 4 to 7 ft range across much
of the area.

For the forecast, a weak low near 09N123W along the surface 
trough will move westward through midweek and enhance winds and 
seas near and north of its center. Large NW swell generated by a
distant low pressure and frontal system will spread across the
northern portion of the basin beginning on Thu and continuing
through the end of the week. 

$$
B Reinhart