000 AXPZ20 KNHC 180859 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Apr 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N79W to a 1012 mb low near 09N123W to 06N137W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high off the S California coast and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting northerly winds, fresh to strong off Baja California Norte, and moderate to fresh off Baja California Sur, the Gulf of California and along the southern Mexican coastline. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 3 to 5 ft in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Patchy areas of haze are possible at the offshore waters of southern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds off Baja California Norte will subside briefly to moderate and fresh late Tue night and Wed morning, then increase again and spread to northern Baja California Sur by Wed afternoon. Moderate northerly swell W of the Baja California peninsula will continue through Thu. Starting Thu evening, large NW swell associated with a cold front off the California coast should arrive at Baja California offshore waters, causing seas to build through Fri. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected in the southern Gulf of California, and along the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through this morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will occur near the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Tue morning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the Costa Rica-wester Panama offshore waters, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are between Ecuador/southern Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in these areas. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. Patchy areas of haze are possible at the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE U.S. will cause fresh winds near the Papagayo region offshore southern Nicaragua late Tue night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected at the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama through this afternoon. Light to gentle winds are anticipated elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell might enter the waters near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu evening, then reach the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama on Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA A surface ridge extending from a 1027 mb high off the southern California coast continues to dominate much of the NW forecast waters, providing moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds N of the ITCZ and surface trough to 25N and W of 115W. Seas within this area are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere with seas at 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a weak low along the surface trough near 09N122W will strenghten slightly while moving westward through midweek enhancing winds and seas near and N of its center. Seas will increase across the northern portion of the basin beginning on Thu due to swell generated by a low pressure system/frontal boundary approaching from the NW. $$ ERA