000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172135
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from near the Panama-Colombia border 
through 07N105W to 07N128W. An ITCZ continues from 07N128W to 
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is noted from 02N to 08N between 81W and 112W. Scattered 
moderate convection is seen from 06N to 13N between 115W and 
140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Tight pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high off the S
California coast and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting 
northerly winds, fresh to strong off Baja California Norte, and 
moderate to fresh off Baja California Sur, the Gulf of 
California and along the southern Mexican coastline. Light to 
gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW offshore waters of 
Mexico. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range offshore of the Baja 
California peninsula, 3 to 5 ft in the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Patchy areas of 
haze are possible at the offshore waters of southern Mexico due 
to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds off Baja 
California Norte will subside briefly to between moderate and 
fresh late Tue night and Wed morning, then increase again and 
spread to northern Baja California Sur by Wed afternoon. Moderate
northerly swell W of the Baja California peninsula will continue
through Thu. Starting Thu evening, large NW swell associated 
with a cold front off the California coast should arrive at Baja 
California offshore waters; causing seas to build through Fri. 
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected in the southern 
Gulf of California, and along the S and SW Mexican offshore 
waters through Mon morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds will 
occur near the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night into Tue morning, 
winds might peak at near-gale force at times.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the Costa Rica-wester
Panama offshore waters, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
are between Ecuador/southern Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. 
Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in these areas. Light to gentle 
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere. Patchy areas of 
haze are possible at the offshore waters of Guatemala, El 
Salvador, and Nicaragua due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE U.S. will 
cause fresh winds near the Papagayo region offshore southern 
Nicaragua late Tue night through Wed morning. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are expected at the offshore waters of Costa Rica
and western Panama through Mon afternoon. Light to gentle winds 
are anticipated elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell might 
enter the waters near Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Thu 
evening, then reach the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama 
on Fri. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extending from a 1026 mb high off the southern
California coast continues to dominate much of the NW forecast 
waters, providing moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds N of the ITCZ
and surface trough to 25N and W of 118W. Seas within this area 
are in the 5 to 7 ft range, except near 8 ft in the vicinity of 
08N134W. Winds are mainly light to gentle elsewhere with seas at 
4 to 6 ft. 

For the forecast, a very weak low along the surface trough near 
09N123W will strenghten slightly while moving westward through 
midweek, thus increasing the winds and seas near and N of its 
center.

$$

Chan