000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170229
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Apr 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to a 1012 mb low near 
09N121W to 07N132W. An ITCZ continues from 07N132W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N
and E of 93W, from 03N to 27N between 107W and 119W, and N of 07N
between 131W and 137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Tight pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure centered
near 29N128W and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, and gentle 
to moderate NW winds off Baja California Sur and the Jalisco 
region. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW 
offshore waters of Mexico, and Gulf of California. Seas are in 
the 6 to 7 ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 3 
to 5 ft in the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in
the Gulf of California. Patchy areas of haze are possible at the
waters near the Baja California peninsula, mainly near the 
northern peninsula due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California 
Norte will prevail through early Wed evening, then becoming 
moderate to fresh afterward. Moderate northerly swell W of the 
Baja California peninsula will continue through midweek. Starting
Thu evening, large NW swell associated with a cold front off the
California coast should arrive at Baja California offshore 
waters. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will develop in the 
southern Gulf of California, and along the S and SW Mexican 
offshore waters Sun evening through Mon afternoon. Northerly 
winds will reach fresh to strong off the Jalisco region through 
early Sun morning, and near the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region 
offshore southern Nicaragua, while gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds are between Ecuador/southern Colombia and the Galapagos 
Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the
4 to 6 ft range in the Papagayo region as well as the Ecuador 
offshore waters. Seas at 4 to 5 ft are found offshore from 
Guatemala-El Salvador, and near the Costa Rica-Panama-Colombia
area.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to support pulses 
of fresh to strong winds near the Papagayo region offshore 
southern Nicaragua through Sun afternoon. Moderate winds in the 
Gulf of Panama will continue through Sun evening, while gentle 
to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador/southern 
Colombia and the Galapagos Islands through Tue afternoon. Light 
to gentle winds are expected elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extending from a 1023 mb high near 29N128W
dominates much of the NW forecast waters, providing mainly 
moderate NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and surface trough to 24N 
and W of 118W. Seas within this area are in the 6 to 7 ft range, 
except near 8 ft near 10N140W. Winds are mainly light to gentle 
elsewhere with seas at 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, a 1012 mb low along the surface trough near 
09N121W will move westward through midweek, thus increasing the 
winds and seas near and N of its center. 

$$
ERA