321 
AXPZ20 KNHC 161652
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the Panama-Colombia border through 
a 1010 mb low near 10N115W to 07N133W. An ITCZ continues from 
07N133W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen from 02N to 06N between 77W and 84W. 
Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 13N between
84W and 117W, and from 07N to 11N between 117W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Tighter pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure 
centered near 27N131W and lower pressure across Mexico is 
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, 
and gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja California Sur. Light to
gentle variable winds are elsewhere in the SW offshore waters of
Mexico, and along the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5 to 6
ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 3 to 5 ft in
the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 
of California. Patchy areas of haze are possible at the waters near
the Baja California peninsula, especially near the northern tip due
to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California 
Norte will prevail through Wed afternoon. Moderate northerly 
swell west of the Baja California peninsula will continue through
midweek before increasing toward next weekend. Moderate NW winds
will develop in the southern Gulf of California and along the S 
and SW Mexican offshore waters this evening, except for fresh to 
strong winds off the Jalisco region. These winds will diminish on
Sun while moderate to fresh winds develop along the Gulf of 
California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region 
offshore southern Nicaragua, while gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds are between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range 
in the Papagayo region as well as off the Ecuador offshore 
waters. Seas at 4 to 5 ft are found offshore from Guatemala-El
Salvador, and from Costa Rica-Panama-Colombia.

For the forecast, a 1020 mb high near 27N131W will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds near the Papagayo region offshore
Nicaragua through early this afternoon, and early Sun morning. 
Gentle winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to moderate 
during the evening hours through Sun evening, while gentle to 
moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through Tue afternoon. Light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge extending from a 1020 mb high near 27N131W 
dominates much of the NW forecast waters, providing mainly 
moderate NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and surface trough to 24N 
and W of 115W. Seas within this area are in the 6 to 7 ft range,
except near 8 ft near 10N139W. Winds are mainly light to gentle 
elsewhere with seas at 4 to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, a 1010 mb low along the surface trough near
10N115W will move westward through midweek, thus increasing the 
winds and seas near and N of its center. 

$$

Chan