000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160259
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Apr 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0245 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 1007 mb low near 10N113W
to 07N133W. The ITCZ extends from 07N133W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N-10N and E of 104W, from 
06N-14N between 110W-122W, and N of 08N between 132W-138W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between 1020 mb high pressure centered 
near 28N129W and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, and gentle 
to moderate NW winds off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle 
variable winds are elsewhere in the SW offshore waters of 
Mexico, and along the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5 to 6 
ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 2 to 5 ft in 
the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 
of California. Elsewhere, patchy areas of haze are possible near 
the coast of SW Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte will
increase to fresh to strong on Sat and prevail through Tue
evening. Northerly swell west of the Baja California peninsula 
will resume Sat through early next week. Moderate NW winds will 
develop in the southern Gulf of California and along the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters on Sat evening, except for fresh to 
strong winds off the Jalisco region. These winds will diminish on
Sun while moderate to fresh winds develop along the Gulf of 
California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in the 
Papagayo region as well as off the Ecuador offshore waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua through late Sat. Gentle winds in the Gulf of
Panama will increase to moderate speeds this weekend while 
gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A surface ridge dominates across the NW forecast waters, which is
providing mainly moderate NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and 
equatorial trough to 24N and W of 110W. Seas within this area 
are in the 6 to 7 ft range. Winds are mainly light to gentle 
elsewhere with seas to 5 ft. A 1007 mb low near 10N113W is 
generating a broad area of scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection. 

For the forecast, the low is forecast to move westward over the
weekend and into early next week, thus increasing the winds and
seas in the vicinity of the ITCZ. 

$$
ERA