000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N89W to 1009 MB low 
near 08N109W to 07N129W. The ITCZ extends from 07N129W to 
08N136W. A trough extends from 09N137W to beyond 07N140W. 
Numerous moderate to strong from 01N to 08N E of 90W. Scattered 
moderate from 03N to 09N between 91W and 104W, from 04N to 13N 
between 108W and 122W, and from 07N to 10N between 134W and 
138W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between 1022 mb high pressure centered 
near 29N128W and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting 
moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, and gentle
to moderate NW winds off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle 
variable winds are elsewhere in the S and SW offshore waters of 
Mexico, and along the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5 to 6 
ft range offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 2 to 5 ft in 
the S and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 
of California. Elsewhere, patchy areas of haze are possible near 
the coast of SW Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte will
increase to fresh to strong on Sat and prevail through Tue
evening. Northerly swell west of the Baja California peninsula 
will resume Sat through early next week. Moderate NW winds will 
develop in the southern Gulf of California and along the S and SW
Mexican offshore waters on Sat evening, except for fresh to 
strong winds off the Jalisco region. These winds will diminish on
Sun while moderate to fresh winds develop along the Gulf of 
California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are  
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in the
Papagayo region as well as off the Ecuador offshore waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua through early Sun. Gentle winds in the Gulf of
Panama will increase to moderate speeds this weekend while 
gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere.
Moderate SW swell offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands 
will subside today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the NW forecast waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ and equatorial trough is supporting 
moderate anticyclonic flow north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. 
Seas within this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Winds are 
gentle to moderate elsewhere with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, conditions are expected to gradually improve, 
with the majority of 8 ft seas expected to subside tonight while 
fresh winds diminish also. Fairly tranquil marine conditions 
will then prevail through the weekend.

$$
Ramos