000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Apr 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 08N106W to 06N127W. The 
ITCZ extends from 06N130W to 07N135W then beyond 140W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection from 02N to 09N E of 90W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from 04N to 14N between 104W
and 114W. Scattered moderate convection from 04N to 09N between
90W and 103W, and from 02N to 12N W of 115W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between 1021 mb high pressure centered 
near 29N131W and lower pressure across Mexico is supporting 
fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte, and gentle to moderate
NW winds off Baja California Sur. Light to gentle variable winds
are elsewhere in the S and SW offshore waters of Mexico, and
along the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range 
offshore of the Baja California peninsula, 2 to 5 ft in the S 
and SW Mexican offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 
California. Elsewhere, patchy areas of haze are possible near 
the coast of SW Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte will
increase to fresh to strong on Sat and prevail through Tue
evening. Northerly swell west of the Baja California peninsula 
will diminish by this evening and resume Sat through early next
week. Moderate NW winds will develop in the southern Gulf of 
California and along the S and SW Mexican offshore waters on Sat 
evening, except for fresh to strong winds off the Jalisco 
region. These winds will diminish on Sun while moderate to fresh
winds develop along the Gulf of California. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong NE to E winds are over the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua while gentle to moderate S to SW winds are  
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range in the
Papagayo region as well as off the Ecuador offshore waters. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region 
offshore Nicaragua through early Sun. Gentle winds in the Gulf of
Panama will increase to moderate speeds this weekend while 
gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere.
Moderate SW swell offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands 
will subside today. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the NW forecast waters. The pressure
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ and equatorial trough is supporting 
moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow north of the ITCZ and west of
110W. Seas within this area are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Winds 
are gentle to moderate elsewhere with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast, conditions are expected to gradually improve, 
with the majority of 8 ft seas expected to subside tonight while 
fresh winds diminish also. Fairly tranquil marine conditions 
will then prevail through the weekend.

$$
Ramos