000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132052
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama 
near 07N77W to 08N95W to 08N117W. The ITCZ extends from 08N117W
to 08N126W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 06N139W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 90W, from 04N to 13N 
between 102W and 117W, and from 04N to 12N between 120W and 128W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 
95W and 100W, and from 06N to 08N between 136W and 139W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and lower pressure over the western U.S. is supporting fresh 
NW winds off Baja California Norte, pulsing occasionally to
strong, with moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Sur. 
Moderate winds are noted in the near Cabo Corrientes as well as
in the central and southern Gulf of California, with light to 
gentle winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere offshore the open waters off Mexico.
Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range offshore Baja California Norte,
and 7 to 9 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
elsewhere offshore Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of 
California, except 2 to 4 ft in the central Gulf of California. 
Patchy to areas of haze are possible near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore of 
Baja California Norte through the evening. Northerly swell west 
of the Baja California peninsula will gradually subside through 
the remainder of the week. Moderate winds will prevail off Cabo 
Corrientes into early Fri, then pulse to fresh to strong Sat 
night. A tight pressure gradient will develop offshore of Baja 
California Norte Sat. Winds over this area will strenghten, and 
seas will build to 8 ft, through the remainder of the upcoming 
weekend and into early next week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh winds are noted over the Papagayo region offshore
Nicaragua. Gentle to moderate winds are between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 
are in the 4 to 6 ft range, reaching 7 ft over the Papagayo 
region offshore Nicaragua as well as the waters between Ecuador 
and the Galapagos Islands in decaying S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh winds into the Papagayo region offshore Nicaragua
through early Sun. Moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will 
develop tonight, gradually diminish to gentle by the end of the 
week, then will increase to moderate this weekend. Gentle to 
moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. 
Moderate S to SW swell offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands will subside through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic flow north of the ITCZ and west of 115W, locally
strong near 12N130W. Seas within this area are in the 7 to 10 ft
range. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere, except fresh north
of 25N and east of 123W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft in fresh 
northerly swell. Long period southerly swell is affecting the 
area mainly south of the equator, with seas to 7 ft between 90W 
and 106W.

For the forecast, conditions are expected to gradually improve, 
with the majority of 8 ft seas expected to subside by Thu, and 
fresh winds diminishing by Fri. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
will then prevail for the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky