000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131510
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 13 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama 
near 07N77W to 06N85W to 07N105W to 07N118W. The ITCZ extends 
from 07N118W to 09N126W, then resumes west of a surface trough 
from 08N132W to 07N137W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 78W and 89W, from 03N
to 08N between 94W and 118W, from 08N to 15N between 108W and
116W, from 04N to 10N between 120W and 127W, and from 10N to 16N
between 125W and 131W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area 
and lower pressure over the western U.S. is supporting fresh to 
strong NW winds off Baja California Norte with moderate to fresh
winds off Baja California Sur. Moderate winds are noted in the
central and southern Gulf of California, with light to gentle
winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate 
winds are elsewhere offshore the open waters off Mexico. Seas 
are in the 10 to 12 ft range offshore Baja California Norte, and 
7 to 9 ft off Baja California Sur. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
elsewhere offshore Mexico, and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of 
California, except 2 to 4 ft in the central Gulf of California. 
Patchy to areas of haze are possible near the coast of 
southwestern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail offshore of
Baja California Norte through the remainder of the morning. 
Northerly swell west of the Baja California peninsula will 
gradually subside through the remainder of the week. Moderate 
winds will prevail off Cabo Corrientes into early Fri, then pulse
to fresh to strong Sat night. A tight pressure gradient will 
develop offshore of Baja California Norte Sat. Winds over this 
area will strenghten, and seas will build to 8 ft, through the 
remainder of the upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo 
region. Moderate winds are over and downstream the Gulf of 
Panama, as well as between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 
ft range, reaching 7 ft over the Papagayo region as well as the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region this 
morning. Moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama will gradually 
diminish to gentle by the end of the week, then will increase to 
moderate this weekend. Gentle to moderate S winds will prevail 
between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Mainly light to gentle
winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate S to SW swell offshore of
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will subside through the end of
the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails north of the area. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly moderate to fresh 
anticyclonic flow north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Seas 
within this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds are gentle to
moderate elsewhere, except fresh to strong north of 25N and east
of 124W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft in fresh northerly swell. 
Long period southerly swell is affecting the area mainly south of
the equator, with seas to 7 ft between 90W and 106W.

For the forecast, conditions are expected to gradually improve, 
with the majority of 8 ft seas expected to subside by Thu, and 
fresh winds diminishing by Fri. Fairly tranquil marine conditions
will then prevail for the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky