000 AXPZ20 KNHC 121959 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1920 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama near 07N77W to 07N95W to 07N115W. The ITCZ extends from 07N115W to 09N125W, then resumes west of a northeast to southwest surface trough from 08N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 94W, from 04N to 12N between 98W and 112W, and from 03N to 14N between 120W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over the western U.S. is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja California Norte, with fresh winds in the northern Gulf of California. Large northerly swell of 10 to 14 ft prevails north of 29N, with 6 to 9 ft elsewhere offshore of Baja California. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range over the northern Gulf of California and 3 ft or less over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere, with S to SW swell dominating east of 104W, and NW swell dominating west of 104W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are pulsing near Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Patchy to areas of haze is possible near the coast of southwestern Mexico due to nearby agricultural fires. For the forecast, the remnants of a front in the form of a trough offshore of Baja California Norte will reinforce the strong NW winds there through early Wed. The large northerly swell north of 29N will persist tonight. Seas to 8 ft will propagate as far south as 21N by Wed before, gradually subsiding through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corrientes into early Wed, and fresh to strong Sat night. A tight pressure gradient will redevelop offshore of Baja California Norte Sat afternoon and night, with winds back to fresh to strong through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Seas will build to around 8 ft there as a result. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR An earlier scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong offshore winds across Papagayo and Offshore of Nicaragua. Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range, highest downwind of Nicaragua and the Gulf of Panama, except reaching near 8 ft southwest of the Galapagos Islands in decaying S to SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, with scattered showers and isolate thunderstorms offshore Costa Rica. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region through Wed evening, then again early Fri. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama will gradually diminish to gentle by the end of the week, then will increase back to moderate this weekend. Gentle to moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. Moderate S to SW swell offshore of Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will subside through the end of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA The remnants of a cold front in the form of a trough extend from 30N116W to 27N128W to 30N131W. A pair of high pressure centers north of the area extend ridging south of 30N to across the northern waters to offshore of southwestern Mexico. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ from 13N122W to 05N129W. Associated convection is described above. The pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing is producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow north of 09N/10N and west of 120W. Seas within this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere, except fresh to strong north of 26N and east of 130W associated with a dissipating cold front. Long period swell from the southern hemisphere is affecting the area south of 10N or so, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, highest south of the equator between 90W and 110W. For the forecast, the northerly swell will gradually subside through the week. The trough in the waters north of 25N will continue southward while weakening through Wed. The trough will bring a reinforcing northerly swell to the area east of 125W and north of 22N through Wed. After the trough dissipates, conditions improve and the majority of 8 ft seas will subside by Thu. Southerly swell affecting areas south of 05N will gradually subside through the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will prevail for the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure centers over the northwest corner. $$ Lewitsky