000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121538
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1450 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama
near 07N78W to 07.5N100W to 07N115W. The ITCZ extends from 
07N115W to 09.5N127W, then resumes west of a northeast to 
southwest surface trough from 05N127W to 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N 
between 77W and 84W, from 02N to 06N between 88W and 96W, from 
04N to 14N between 97W and 115W, from 03N to 14N between 120W and
135W, and from 03N to 07N between 135W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern 
Pacific and lower pressure over the western U.S. is supporting 
fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja California Norte and 
the northern Gulf of California. Large northerly swell of 10 to 
13 ft prevails north of 29N, with 6 to 9 ft elsewhere offshore of
Baja California. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range over the
northern Gulf of California and 3 ft or less over the remainder 
of the Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere, with S to SW
swell dominating east of 105W, and NW swell dominating west of
105W. Moderate to fresh NW winds are pulsing near Cabo 
Corrientes. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Patchy to
areas of haze is possible near the coast of southwestern Mexico
due to nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, a dissipating cold front will enter the region
from the north later today, reinforcing the strong NW winds 
through early Wed. The large northerly swell north of 29N will
build to 12 to 14 ft after the frontal passage later today into 
tonight. Seas to 8 ft will propagate as far south as 21N by Wed 
before, gradually subsiding through the remainder of the week. 
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse near Cabo Corrientes into 
early Wed, and fresh to strong Sat night. A tight pressure 
gradient will redevelop offshore of Baja California Norte Sat 
afternoon and night, with winds back to fresh to strong.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail across Papagayo and Offshore of
Nicaragua, with moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore of Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are
in the 4 to 7 ft range, highest downwind of Nicaragua and the
Gulf of Panama, except reaching near 8 ft southwest of the 
Galapagos Islands in decaying S to SW swell. Scattered
thunderstorms are occurring offshore of Colombia.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region through 
Wed evening, then again early Fri. Fresh winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will gradually diminish to gentle by the end of the week, 
then will increase back to moderate this weekend. Gentle to 
moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through Fri. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere. Moderate S to SW swell offshore of Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands will subside through the end of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1031 mb is centered well northwest of the area 
near 36N144W, with a ridge axis reaching southeast through
30N140W to offshore of southwestern Mexico. A surface trough is
embedded in the ITCZ from 10N128W to 05N135W. Associated
convection is described above. The pressure gradient between 
this area of high pressure and ridging, and lower pressure over 
California, Mexico and the deep tropics is producing moderate to 
fresh anticyclonic flow north of 10N and west of 115W. Seas 
within this area are in the 7 to 10 ft range. Winds are gentle to
moderate elsewhere. Long period swell from the southern 
hemisphere is affecting the area south of 10N, with seas of 6 to
8 ft, highest south of the equator between 90W and 110W.

For the forecast, the northerly swell will gradually subside
through the week. A dissipating cold front will enter the waters
north of 25N later today, extending from 31N114W to 28N122W to 
30N131W while continuing to weaken. A remnant trough will 
continue southward through Wed. The front/trough will bring a 
reinforcing northerly swell to the area east of 125W and north of
22N through Wed. After the front/trough dissipates, conditions 
improve and the majority of 8 ft seas will subside by Thu. 
Southerly swell affecting areas south of 05N will gradually 
subside through the week. Fairly tranquil marine conditions will
prevail for the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky