000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120831
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N83W to 08N114W. The 
ITCZ extends from 08N114W to 07N127W. It resumes from 05N133W to
04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
03N to 09N between 85W and 102W, from 04N to 13N between 102W and
115W, and from 05N to 11N between 125W and 135W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate to fresh winds prevail off the coast of Baja California
Norte, reaching locally strong speeds north of 29N. Fresh to 
strong winds are noted over the northern Gulf of California. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 
ft range off Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off Baja California 
Sur, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. 
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the northern Gulf of California
and 2-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over the western U.S.
is supporting fresh to locally strong NW winds off Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California. A cold 
front will enter the region from the north this morning, 
reinforcing the strong NW winds through early Wed. Northerly 
swell of 10-12 ft prevails north of 29N, increasing to 12-14 ft 
after the frontal passage today. Seas to 8 ft will propagate as 
far south as 21N by Wed before seas begin to subside across the 
area.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Papagayo region, with
moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, reaching
near 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region through 
mid week. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Panama will gradually 
diminish to gentle through midweek. Gentle to moderate S winds 
will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands the next 
few days. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere. S 
to SW swell south of the Galapagos will subside below 8 ft today.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered northwest of the area near
37N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure lower pressure over California, Mexico and the deep 
tropics is producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow north of
05N and west of 115W. Seas within this area are in the 7-10 ft
range. Long period swell from the southern hemisphere is 
affecting the area south of 05N between 100W and 120W, with seas 
in the 7-8 ft range. 

For the forecast, the northerly swell will gradually subside
through the week. A cold front will enter the waters north of 
25N early this morning, extending from 31N114W to 28N122W to 
30N131W. The front will continue southward before dissipating 
tonight. The front will bring a reinforcing northerly swell to 
the area east of 125W and north of 22N through Wed. After the 
cold front dissipates, conditions improve and the majority of 8 
ft seas will subside by Thu. Southerly swell affecting areas 
south of 05N will gradually subside through the week.

$$
AL