000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120232
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Apr 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N83W to 07N110W. The 
ITCZ extends from 07N110W to 08N125W. It resumes from 05N132W to
05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 
02N to 08N between 85W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 132W, and from 02N to 06N
between 132W and 140W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Moderate to fresh winds prevail off the coast of Baja California
Norte, reaching strong speeds north of 29N. Fresh to strong winds
are noted over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range
off Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off Baja California Sur, and
4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are in
the 3-5 ft range over the northern Gulf of California and 2-3 ft
over the remainder of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
over the eastern Pacific and lower pressure over the western U.S.
is supporting fresh to strong NW winds off Baja California Norte
and the northern Gulf of California. By Tue morning, a cold 
front enters the region from the north, reinforcing the strong NW
winds through early Wed. Northerly swell of 10-12 ft prevails 
north of 29N, increasing to 12-14 ft after the frontal passage 
Tue. Seas to 8 ft will propagate as far south as 21N by Wed 
before seas begin to subside across the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Papagayo region, with
moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere, reaching moderate speeds between Ecuador and
the Galapagos Islands. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, reaching
near 8 ft south of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulses of fresh to strong winds into the Papagayo region through 
mid week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight, 
gradually diminishing to gentle through midweek. Gentle to 
moderate S winds will prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands through the next few days. Mainly light to gentle winds 
are expected elsewhere. S to SW swell south of the Galapagos will
subside below 8 ft Tue. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure of 1030 mb is centered northwest of the area near
37N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure lower pressure over California, Mexico and the deep 
tropics is producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic flow north of
05N and west of 115W. Seas within this area are 6-8 ft south of 
15N and 8-12 ft north of 15N in northerly swell. Long period 
swell from the southern hemisphere is affecting the area south of
05N between 100W and 120W, with seas in the 7-9 ft range. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will spread southward, with 
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters north of 10N 
and west of 115W by tonight. A cold front will enter the waters 
north of 25N by early Tue morning, extending from 31N114W to 
28N122W to 30N131W. The front will continue southward before 
dissipating Tue night. The front will bring a reinforcing 
northerly swell to the area east of 125W and north of 22N Tue 
through Wed. After the cold front dissipates, conditions improve 
and the majority of 8 ft seas will subside by Thu. Southerly 
swell affecting areas south of 05N will gradually subside 
through the week.

$$
AL