000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112153
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Apr 11 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 07N110W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N123W to 03N to 140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 77W and 100W. 
Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 07N to 13N 
between 100W and 111W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from
04N to 12N between 111W and 130W. Isolated weak convection is 
noted from 03N to 06N between 130W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

The gradient between high pressure over the eastern Pacific and 
lower pressure over the western U.S. is causing fresh to strong
NW winds off Baja California Norte. Scatterometer data confirmed
fresh SW winds are funneling across Baja, into the northern Gulf
of California. Tue morning, a cold front enters the region from 
the North, reinforcing the strong NW winds through early Wed. 
Northerly swell of 10-12 ft prevails north of 29N, increasing to 
12-14 ft after frontal passage Tuesday. Swell above 8 ft currently
extends south to 24N and will reach as far south as 21N by 
Wednesday before seas begin to abate across the area. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

High pressure north of the area will support pulses of fresh to 
strong winds into the Papagayo region into mid week. Fresh winds 
will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight, gradually diminishing 
to gentle through midweek. Gentle to moderate S winds will 
prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the 
next few days. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected 
elsewhere. S to SW swell will build to 8 ft through early Tue south
of the Galapagos Islands before abating.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The gradient between a 1033 mb high pressure centered north of 
the area near 36N143W and lower pressure over California, Mexico
and the deep tropics is producing moderate to fresh anticyclonic
flow north of 05N and west of 115W. Seas within this area are 6-8
ft south of 15N and 8-12 ft north of 15N. Long period swell from
the southern hemisphere is affecting the area south of 05N 
between 100W and 120W, with seas in the 7-9 ft range. 

For the forecast, northerly swell will spread southward, with 
seas greater than 8 ft covering much of the waters north of 10N 
and west of 115W by tonight. A cold front will enter the waters 
north of 25N by early Tue morning, extending from 31N114W to 
28N122W to 30N131W. The front will continue southward before 
dissipating Tue night. The front will bring a reinforcing 
northerly swell to the area east of 125W and north of 22N Tue 
through Wed. After the cold front dissipates, conditions improve 
and the majority of 8 ft seas will abate by Thu. Southerly swell 
affecting areas south of 05N will gradually abate through the 
week.

$$
FLYNN