000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102116
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 08N91W to 06N103W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N103W to 10N115W. It resumes from 06N130W
TO 05N140W. A 1011 mb low pressure near 08N126.5W is along a 
surface trough that extends from 13N121W to 06N129W. Another
surface trough extends from 11N116W to 08N120W. Scattered strong
convection is noted from 02.5N to 09N between 77.5W and 88W, and
from 12N to 15N between 105W and 110W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 02N to 12N between 88W and 105W,
from 08N to 12N between 105W and 115W, and from 04N to 13N
between 115W and 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Fresh SE to S winds prevail across the central and northern Gulf
of California, with locally strong winds in the northern Gulf. 
Moderate NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte. An ASCAT
satellite data pass from 10/1538 UTC showed moderate to fresh 
northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Since that time, 
winds there have likely diminished to moderate. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico. Seas 
are 3-5 ft across the Gulf of California. Seas are 8-12 ft west 
of Baja California Norte and 6-10 ft off Baja California Sur in 
NW swell. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SW winds will persist 
across the northern Gulf of California through Tue morning. 
Northerly swell will continue to prevail west of Baja California 
through Mon. A cold front will move into the northern portion of
the area by early Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW winds are 
expected behind the front to the west of Baja California Norte, 
with fresh winds off Baja California Sur. A reinforcing set of 
northerly swell will enter the area behind the front. This will 
maintain wave heights in excess of 8 ft west of the Baja 
California peninsula through Wed night or early Thu.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

An ASCAT satellite data pass from 10/1539 UTC showed strong NE
winds offshore the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N
to NE winds are likely occurring over the Gulf of Panama. Light 
to gentle winds prevail elsewhere, except for gentle to moderate
southerlies, which are noted in ASCAT data offshore of Ecuador. 
Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except 7-9 ft offshore the Papagayo
region.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse in
the Papagayo region through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Panama through Mon night, gradually diminishing to
gentle through midweek. Gentle to moderate S winds are expected
to prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the
next few days. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected
elsewhere. S to SW swell will increase seas Mon through early Tue 
to the south of the Galapagos Islands and well to the west of 
Ecuador. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1035 mb is centered north of the area 
near 37N141W. This area of high pressure is generating a tight 
pressure gradient that is supporting fresh to strong NE winds 
over the northwest portion of the area, west of 121W and north of
19N, confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass. Seas in this area are
likely in the 10-14 ft range. An altimeter pass from 10/1430 UTC
shows seas of 12 to 13 ft from 23N-27N and west of 138W. Moderate
to locally fresh trade winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and
west of 130W, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Southern Hemisphere swell is 
affecting the area south of 03N between 100W-125W, with 8-9 ft 
seas.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong winds over the
northwest part of the area will start to diminish by early Mon,
but will continue north of 27N and east of 126W. Swell generated
from these winds will spread southward, with seas greater than 8
ft covering much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W by 
Mon night. A cold front will enter the northern waters by early
Tue morning, then extend from 31N113W to 26N121W to 30N134W by
midday Tue. The front will continue southward before dissipating
Tue night. The front will bring a reinforcing northerly swell to
the area east of 125W and north of 22N Tue through Wed. 
Southerly swell from the Southern Hemisphere will continue to 
affect areas south of 05N between the Galapagos Islands and 125W 
through the early part of next week.

$$
Hagen