000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Apr 10 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 07N89W to 06N103W. The 
ITCZ continues from 06N103W to 10N121W. It resumes from 07N128W
to 05N134W to 05N140W. A 1010 mb low pressure near 08N126W is
along a surface trough that extends from 11N124W to 05N127W.
Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N between 78W and 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 04N to 08N between 97W and 105W, from 09N to 
15N between 105W and 113W, and from 03N to 11N between 114W and 
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico has shifted eastward.
This has loosened the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec
region. Fresh to strong N winds now prevail, with seas 7-9 ft.
Winds and seas will continue to decrease today.

Aside from conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to 
fresh NW winds prevail west of Baja California Norte. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico.
Fresh to strong SE to S winds prevail over the northern Gulf of 
California, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the 
Gulf. Seas are 8-12 ft west of Baja California Norte and 5-10 ft
off Baja California Sur in NW swell. Seas are 3-5 ft in the Gulf
of California and 4-6 ft elsewhere offshore Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist across the 
northern Gulf of California through early Tue. Northerly swell 
propagating across the waters off Baja California Norte will 
spread southward across the waters off Baja California Sur today.
An area of strong northerly winds well to the west of the Baja
California Norte offshore zones will remain in place and shift
slightly eastward through Mon. This will maintain rough seas off
Baja California Norte. A cold front will move into the northern
portion of the area by early Tue morning. Fresh to strong NW 
winds are likely behind the front to the west of Baja California 
Norte, with moderate to fresh winds off Baja California Sur. A 
reinforcing set of northerly swell will enter the area behind the
front. This will maintain wave heights in excess of 8 ft west of
the Baja California peninsula through Wed night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Strong to locally near gale force NE to ENE winds prevail over 
the Gulf of Papagayo region, with fresh NNE winds over the Gulf 
of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in 
the 4-6 ft range, except 7-10 ft in the Papagayo region. Seas 
are 6-7 ft in subsiding N swell well offshore of Guatemala due 
to the gap wind event that recently ended in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will continue to pulse in
the Papagayo region through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Panama through Mon, diminishing to gentle to moderate
thereafter. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the 
rest of the offshore waters. S to SW swell will increase seas 
Mon to the south of the Galapagos Islands and well to the west 
of Ecuador. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

Strong high pressure of 1036 mb is centered north of the area 
near 37N142W. This area of high pressure is generating a tight 
pressure gradient that is supporting fresh to strong NE winds 
over the northwest portion of the area. Seas in this area are in 
the 10-14 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are 
elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west of 130W, with gentle to 
moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft 
range. Southern Hemisphere swell is affecting the area south of 
03N between 100W-125W, with 8-9 ft seas.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to strong winds over the
northwest part of the area will continue through today before 
starting to diminish early next week. Swell generated from these 
winds will spread southward, with seas greater than 8 ft covering
much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W by Mon night. A
cold front will enter the northern waters by Tue morning. The 
front will bring a reinforcing northerly swell to the area east 
of 125W and north of 22N Tue through Wed. Southerly swell from 
the Southern Hemisphere will continue to affect areas south of 
05N between the Galapagos Islands and 125W through the early 
part of next week.

$$
Hagen