000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072133
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2055 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A strong cold front continues to move across the Gulf of Mexico,
currently extending from the NE Gulf to the Bay of Campeche. 
Strong to near gale force N to NE winds behind the front will 
funnel into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon, then quickly 
increase to gale-force late this afternoon. Winds will peak 
around 40 kt late tonight through early Sat morning. Winds are 
forecast to diminish below gale-force late Sat afternoon. Fresh 
to strong winds then persisting into Sun morning before 
decreasing further. Seas will peak around 14 ft late Fri into 
early Sat, subsiding below 8 ft by Sun morning.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W 
to 06N85W to 07N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N96W to 10N115W 
to 05N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is present from 03N to 08N and E of 95W. 
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and 
between 109W and 124W. Similar convection is seen from 03N to 
07N and W of 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the central and
southern Gulf of California, showing some of the fresh to strong
NW breezes occurring in the northern and central portions of the
basin. Light to gentle NW breezes prevail in the southern gulf.
Seas in the northern gulf are 4-6 ft, while 2-4 ft prevail
elsewhere. A weak pressure gradient over the offshore waters of
Baja California result in gentle to occasionally moderate NW
winds. NW swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft, with the highest
seas occurring well offshore. 

In the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, outside of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and seas of 5-7 ft are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the elevated seas affecting the offshore 
waters of Baja California will gradually subside into Fri, with 
a larger NW swell event expected this weekend. The fresh to 
strong NW winds in the northern and central Gulf of California 
will continue into Fri morning, becoming gentle to moderate 
thereafter. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will then 
develop in the northern Gulf of California by Sat afternoon ahead
of an approaching cold front, persisting into early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that moderate to
locally fresh NE trades are present in the Papagayo region. Seas
in this area are 4-6 ft. S of 04N, moderate to occasionally fresh
southerly winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and 
Ecuador. Seas in this region are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, including the
Gulf of Panama, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft 
prevail

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trades are forecast
to pulse at night across the Papagayo region through Fri, 
increasing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend into early 
next week. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the 
rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing 
to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. 
NW swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region will propagate in late Sat. Seas elsewhere 
will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell, reinforcing 
early next week offshore Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A weakening cold front is approaching the northwest corner of our
area of responsibility, but it is not producing any convection of
interest. A subtropical ridge is centered near 36N151W and its
influence extends past the Revillagigedo Islands off Baja
California. The weather conditions are fairly tranquil outside of
the deep tropics. Scatterometer satellite data show moderate to
fresh trades from 05N to 20N and W of 130W. N-NW swell and NE
wind waves are producing seas of 7-9 ft in the area mentioned. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the weakening cold front is forecast to become
a shear line over the northwest portion of the basin Fri into the
weekend. Fresh to strong NE winds will reach the area N of 25N 
and west of 125W by Fri morning and slowly expand southeastward 
through the weekend. Building seas will peak near 14 ft N of 
25N by the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
DELGADO