000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071547
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A late-season cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. 
It is forecast to reach from the Tampa Bay area SW to the Bay of
Campeche by this evening. Strong to near gale force N to NE 
winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass into 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this afternoon, then quickly increase
to gale-force tonight. Winds will peak around 40 kt early Fri 
through Fri evening. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale- 
force Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds then persisting into 
Sun morning before decreasing further. Seas will peak around 14 
ft during the strongest winds. 

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia near 07N78W 
to 06N85W to 05N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N99W to 06N110W 
to 05N120W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 03N to 07N and E of 94W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 12N and
between 104W and 122W. Similar convection is found from 03N to
09N and W of 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please refer to the Special Features for details on a developing
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

The subtropical high is centered well northwest of our area,
allowing for gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore
waters of Baja California. Large NW swell in this region are
producing seas of 6-9 ft. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW breezes 
are found in the northern Gulf of California, along with seas of 
3-5 ft. Elsewhere in the gulf, moderate to locally fresh NW winds
and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. In the rest of the Mexican offshore 
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate 
NW-N winds and seas of 4-6 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja
California will subside this afternoon into Fri, with a larger 
NW swell event expected this weekend. The fresh to strong NW 
winds in the northern Gulf of California will last into late Fri 
morning, diminishing thereafter. Fresh to locally strong 
southerly winds will then develop in the northern Gulf of 
California by Sat afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front, 
persisting into early next week.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the Papagayo region
to 88W, with some of these winds spreading across the southern
Nicaraguan coastal waters. Seas in the area are 4-5 ft. Moderate
northerly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama with seas of
3-4 ft. S of 04N, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are 
noted between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Seas in this 
region are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas 
of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse at
night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh 
to strong speeds this weekend into early next week. Mainly light
to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore 
waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh 
in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Northerly swell associated 
with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will 
propagate in late Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a
moderate S to SW swell, reinforcing early next week offshore
Ecuador.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A subtropical ridge of 1024 mb is positioned near 38N130W and
dominates the tropical eastern Pacific with fairly tranquil
weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. A weak pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the
ITCZ results in moderate to locally fresh NE trades from 05N to
20N and W of 120W. NW swell and NE wind waves are producing seas
of 7-9 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to diminish as
a weakening cold front approaches the northwest corner of our 
area. Fresh to strong NE winds will reach the area N of 20N and 
west of 125W by Fri morning and slowly expand eastward through 
the weekend. Building seas peaking to 14 ft near 30N130W by the 
end of the week into the weekend.

$$
DELGADO