000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070952 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to Tampico, Mexico is forecast to extend from the Tampa Bay area SW to the Bay of Campeche by this evening. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by this evening, then quickly increase to gale-force late tonight. Winds will peak around 40 kt early Fri through Fri evening. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force Sat afternoon, with fresh to strong winds then persisting into Sun morning before further diminishing. Seas will peak around 14 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 05N86W to 04N95W. The ITCZ extends from 04N96W to 03N103W to 06N110W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 05N118W to 06N129W, then from 06N134W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 09N E of 89W, and from 03N to 12N between 107W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 09N W of 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A generally weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate NW winds noted just offshore Jalisco, Mexico and moderate to fresh NW winds along the northern and central Gulf of California. Large NW swell with seas of 7 to 9 ft prevails across the waters offshore of Baja California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long period NW swell elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend into early next week. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Northerly swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Fri into late Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell, reinforcing early next week offshore Ecuador. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the entire region with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 02N and 5 to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador in long period southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters offshore of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and northern Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend into early next week. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Northerly swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate in late Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell, reinforcing early next week offshore Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Two surface troughs are embedded within the ITCZ, with one from 03N114W to 12N114W and the other from 03N131W to 12N130W. Associated convection is described above. High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail from 07N to 20N and west of 120W, and also north of 27N between 124W and 134W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 00N and W of 112W in NW swell, with mainly 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 95W. For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken through Thu in response to an approaching shearline front. Fresh to strong NE winds will reach the area N of 20N and west of the shearline. The shearline will extend from 30N129W to 23N140W late Thu into early Fri, progressing east thereafter. NW swell will follow the shearline, with building seas peaking to 14 ft along 30N between 120W and 135W by the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from near the equator southward between the Galapagos Islands and 120W through late tonight. $$ Ramos