000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico is forecast to extend from the Tampa Bay area SW to the Bay of Campeche by Thu evening. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu evening, then quickly increase to gale-force late Thu night. Winds will peak around 40 kt early Fri through Fri evening. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force Sat afternoon, with fresh to strong winds then persisting into Sun morning before diminishing. Seas will peak around 14 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia near 07N78W to 05N87W to 04N95W. The ITCZ extends from 04N96W to 04N103W to 06N111W, then resumes west of a surface trough from 06N117W to 07N128W, then from 05N135W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 09N E of 89W, and from 02N to 14N between 105W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A surface trough extends along the Baja California Norte offshore waters. A generally weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate NW winds noted just offshore southwestern Mexico and portions of the Gulf of California. Large NW swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft is across the waters offshore of Baja California Norte, with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore of Baja California Sur. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long period NW swell elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach Baja California Sur late tonight into Thu before subsiding Thu night into Fri, with a larger NW swell event expected this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California late tonight into Thu, increasing to fresh to strong Thu morning into Fri evening, diminishing thereafter. Fresh to strong southerly winds will then develop in the northern Gulf of California by Sat afternoon ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough, persisting into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the entire region with seas of 3 to 5 ft N of 02N and 5 to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador in long period southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters offshore of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and northern Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend into early next week. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. Northerly swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate in late Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell, reinforcing early next week offshore Ecuador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA Two surface troughs are embedded within the ITCZ, with one from 03N114W to 12N114W and the other from 03N131W to 12N130W. Associated convection is described above. High pressure prevails over the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail from 07N to 20N and west of 120W, and also north of 27N between 124W and 134W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 00N and W of 112W in NW swell, with mainly 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere, except 4 to 6 ft east of 95W. For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken through Thu in response to an approaching shearline front. Fresh to strong NE winds will reach the area N of 20N and west of the shearline. The shearline will extend from 30N129W to 23N140W late Thu into early Fri, progressing east thereafter. NW swell will follow the shearline, with building seas peaking to 14 ft along 30N between 120W and 135W by the end of the week into the weekend. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters from near the equator southward between the Galapagos Islands and 120W through late tonight. $$ Ramos