000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front expected to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico later today and is forecast to extend from the Tampa Bay area SW to the Bay of Campeche by Thu evening. Strong to near gale force N to NE winds behind the front will funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu evening, then quickly increasing to gale-force late Thu night. Winds will peak around 40 kt early Fri through Fri evening. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force after sunrise Sat, with fresh to strong winds then persisting into Sun morning before diminishing. Seas will peak around 14 ft during the strongest winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 03N93W to 08N110W to 05N120W to 07N126W to 04N131W. The ITCZ continues from 04N131W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong from 02N to 07N between 77W and 88W, from 03N to 13N between 103W and 120W, and from 03N to 10N between 124W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please refer to the Special Features for details on a developing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A 1028 mb high centered well to the north of the discussion area west of San Francisco Bay, California near 37.5N130W extends a ridge southeast to just west of the offshore waters. A surface trough extends southeastward along the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds are noted just beyond the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, while moderate SW-W winds are just offshore of Oaxaca, Mexico. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell with seas of 8 to 12 ft is approaching the waters offshore of Baja California Norte, with 6 to 8 ft seas offshore of Baja California Sur. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long period NW swell elsewhere over the open waters, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach Baja California Sur late tonight into Thu before subsiding Thu night into Fri, with a larger NW swell event expected this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California late tonight into Thu, increasing to fresh to strong Thu morning into Fri evening, diminishing thereafter. Fresh to strong southerly winds will then develop in the northern Gulf of California by Sat afternoon ahead of an approaching pre-frontal trough, persisting through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh winds are in the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are offshore of Ecuador. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft, except 5 to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador in long period southerly swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters offshore of Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. N to NE swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate into the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu night into early Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure prevails over the waters north of the equatorial trough. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail north of the equatorial trough to 20N and west of 125W, and also north of 24N between 120W and 131W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north of 23N between 116W and 137W in NW swell, with mainly 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed swell elsewhere. For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. The moderate to fresh NE to E winds will diminish to moderate speeds today, then will strengthen later in the week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in behind a decaying cold front/shearline. A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the NW forecast waters by early Fri in association with the cold front/shearline, along with increasing winds to fresh to strong. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters south of 01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 120W through late today. $$ Lewitsky