000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N78W to 06N89W to 02N94W. The ITCZ extends from 02N95W to 05N104W then resumes near 05N132W and continues beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 08N E of 84W, from 02N to 13N between 103W and 120W, and from 01N to 10N between 120W and 132W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A 1033 mb high centered well north of the discussion waters near 46N126W continues to extend a ridge south to southeast to across portions of the Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough extends from NW Mexico southward to the entrance of the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate SE winds in the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are noted from the coast of Michoacan to just offshore of southern Guerrero. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters. In terms of seas, NW swell of 7 to 10 ft is noted offshore of Baja California, except 6 to 8 ft south of 23N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft, mainly in NW swell, covers the remainder of the open offshore waters, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will reach Baja California Sur Thu before subsiding Thu night, with a larger NW swell event expected this weekend. In the Gulf of California, moderate winds in the northern Gulf will diminish to light to gentle by early Wed, then will increase to moderate to fresh speeds throughout the Gulf Thu and Fri. A low and associated surface trough developing in southern California Sat will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California on Sat, becoming fresh to strong in the northern Gulf Sun night. Gale-force gap winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night into Sat morning, gradually diminishing thereafter. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire forecast waters, with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, in S to SW swell, except 5 to 6 ft offshore of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters offshore of Costa Rica and offshore the border of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, moderate easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong speeds this weekend. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week, pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. N to NE swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region on Thu night will extend to the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Fri into Sat. Seas elsewhere will be mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA High pressure prevails over the waters north of the equatorial trough, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered well north of the discussion waters near 46N126W. The pressure gradient between the high and the equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of the equatorial trough and west of 120W. Seas over this area are mainly in the 7 to 10 ft range in NW swell as indicated by recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. A 1005 mb low has developed along the equatorial trough near 06N128W with numerous moderate convection from 03N to 10N between 123W and 129W. For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. The moderate to fresh NE to E winds will diminish to moderate speeds midweek, then will strengthen later in the week and into the weekend as high pressure builds in behind a decaying cold front. A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the NW forecast waters on Fri in association with the cold front. The aforementioned low is forecast to move westward on Wed before weakening and opening into a surface trough Wed night into Thu morning. Otherwise, cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate through the waters south of 01N and between the Galapagos Islands and 120W through midweek. $$ Ramos