000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060351
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Apr 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from NW Colombia near 07N77W to 02N92W 
to 07N110W to 05N121W to a 1005 mb low near 06N128W to 05N130W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 00N to 10N E of 91W, and from 01N to
11N between 103W and 118W. Numerous moderate convection
associated with the low is from 03N to 10N between 123W and 129W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1033 mb high centered well north of the discussion waters near
46N126W continues to extend a ridge south to southeast to across
portions of the Baja California offshore waters. A surface 
trough extends from NW Mexico southward to the entrance of the Gulf
of California. The pressure gradient between these features is 
supporting moderate SE winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are noted from the coast of
Michoacan to just offshore of southern Guerrero. Light to gentle
winds are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters. In terms of
seas, NW swell of 7 to 10 ft is noted offshore of Baja 
California, except 6 to 8 ft south of 23N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft, 
mainly in NW swell, covers the remainder of the open offshore 
waters, with seas of 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte will reach Baja California Sur Thu before 
subsiding Thu night, with a larger NW swell event expected this 
weekend. In the Gulf of California, moderate winds in the 
northern Gulf will diminish to light to gentle by early Wed, then
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds throughout the Gulf 
Thu and Fri. A low and associated surface trough developing in 
southern California Sat will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds 
along the Gulf of California on Sat, becoming fresh to strong in 
the northern Gulf Sun night. Gale-force gap winds are possible 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night into Sat morning, gradually
diminishing thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire forecast waters,
with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range, in S to SW swell, except 5 to 
6 ft offshore of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Scattered 
showers and thunderstorms are impacting the waters offshore of 
Costa Rica and offshore the border of Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds will pulse at night in
the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong
speeds this weekend. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected 
over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week,
pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Panama this weekend.
N to NE swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region on Thu night will extend to the Guatemala and
El Salvador offshore waters Fri into Sat. Seas elsewhere will be
mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the equatorial
trough, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered well north of the 
discussion waters northwest of Cape Mendocino, California near 
42N128W. The pressure gradient between the high and the 
equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
north of the equatorial trough and west of 120W. Seas over this 
area are mainly in the 7 to 10 ft range in NW swell as indicated 
by recent altimeter data, up to 11 ft near 30N123W. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft 
range.

For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken
through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. The
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will diminish to moderate speeds
midweek, then will strengthen later in the week and into the
weekend as high pressure builds in behind a decaying cold front.
A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the NW forecast 
waters on Fri in association with the cold front. Otherwise, 
cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate 
through the waters south of 01N and between the Galapagos Islands
and 120W through midweek.

$$
Ramos