000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052037
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Apr 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2020 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama
near 07N78W to 03N93W to 07.5N110W to 05N120W to 07N127W to
04N131W. The ITCZ extends from 04N131W to beyond 04N140W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 10N between 80W and 89W, from 03N to 12N between 105W and
115W, and from 04N to 09N between 123W and 129W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 115W and
121W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A 1031 mb high centered well north of the discussion waters
northwest of Cape Mendocino, California near 42N128W continues 
to extend a ridge southeast to across the Baja California 
offshore waters. A surface trough extends from near the SW 
Arizona/California border southward across the Gulf of 
California to a 1012 mb low pressure area near 21.5N108W. The 
pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate 
SE winds in the Gulf of California. Moderate SW-W winds are noted
from the coast to just offshore of Oaxaca. Light to gentle winds
are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters. NW swell of 7 to
10 ft is noted offshore of Baja California, except 6 to 8 ft
south of 23N. Seas of 4 to 6 ft, mainly in NW swell, covers the
remainder of the open offshore waters, with seas of 3 ft or less
in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, NW swell affecting the offshore waters of Baja 
California Norte will reach Baja California Sur Thu before 
subsiding Thu night, with a larger NW swell event expected this 
weekend. In the Gulf of California, moderate winds in the 
northern Gulf will diminish to light to gentle by early Wed, then
will increase to moderate to fresh speeds throughout the Gulf 
Thu and Fri. A low and associated surface trough developing in 
southern California Sat will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds 
along the Gulf of California on Sat, becoming fresh to strong in 
the northern Gulf Sun night. Gale-force gap winds are possible 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night into Sat morning, gradually
diminishing thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire forecast waters,
except to moderate in the Papagayo region, with seas in the 3 to
5 ft range, in S to SW swell, except 5 to 6 ft offshore of
Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are impacting the
waters offshore of western Panama and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds will pulse at night in
the Papagayo region through the week, pulsing to fresh to strong
speeds this weekend. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected 
over the rest of the offshore waters through the end of the week,
pulsing to moderate in the Gulf of Panama this weekend. N to NE 
swell associated with a gale-force gap wind event in the 
Tehuantepec region on Thu night will extend to the Guatemala and 
El Salvador offshore waters Fri into Sat. Seas elsewhere will be 
mainly driven by a moderate S to SW swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

High pressure prevails over the waters north of the equatorial
trough, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered well north of the 
discussion waters northwest of Cape Mendocino, California near 
42N128W. The pressure gradient between the high and the 
equatorial trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds 
north of the equatorial trough and west of 120W. Seas over this 
area are mainly in the 7 to 10 ft range in NW swell as indicated 
by recent altimeter data, up to 11 ft near 30N123W. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds prevail, with seas in the 5 to 7 ft 
range.

For the forecast, the ridge is forecast to gradually weaken
through Thu in response to an approaching cold front. The
moderate to fresh NE to E winds will diminish to moderate speeds
midweek, then will strengthen later in the week and into the
weekend as high pressure builds in behind a decaying cold front.
A new set of NW swell is forecast to affect the NW forecast 
waters on Fri in association with the cold front. Otherwise, 
cross-equatorial southerly swell is forecast to propagate 
through the waters south of 01N and between the Galapagos Islands
and 120W through midweek.

$$
Lewitsky